Tag: Recession and Depression

The Economy Faces Big Risks in 2019. Markets Are Only Now Facing Up to Them.

ImageTraders outside the New York Stock Exchange this week. Worries about the economy’s future are finally starting to affect stock prices, even though the economy remains strong.CreditMary Altaffer/Associated Press After another week of exceptional volatility on Wall Street that has pummeled stock portfolios, there are two closely related questions worth asking. First, why is this […]

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With the Economy Uncertain, Tech ‘Unicorns’ Rush Toward I.P.O.

SAN FRANCISCO — For years, Uber and Lyft put off going public. Now, they are speeding up. Faced with a volatile stock market and the prospect of an economic downturn next year, the ride-hailing services have moved more urgently toward an initial public offering, said four people with knowledge of the companies’ plans, who were […]

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Walmart Shoppers Get Holiday Surprise From Tyler Perry: Debts Forgiven

When Walmart shoppers visited their local stores this week, some walked out with a holiday surprise. On Thursday, the actor and producer Tyler Perry announced on Instagram that he would pay off layaway accounts in two stores in the Atlanta region, totaling $432,635. Days earlier, Gayle Benson, a billionaire philanthropist and owner of the New […]

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When C.E.O.s Cared About America

ImageSenator Elizabeth Warren spoke at American University in Washington, D.C., on Thursday.CreditT.J. Kirkpatrick for The New York Times The October 1944 edition of Fortune magazine carried an article by a corporate executive that makes for amazing reading today. It was written by William B. Benton — a co-founder of the Benton & Bowles ad agency […]

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Global Growth Cools, Leaving Scars of ’08 Unhealed

LONDON — Only a few months ago, the world’s fortunes appeared increasingly robust. For the first time since the wealth-destroying agony of the global financial crisis, every major economy was growing in unison. So much for all that. The global economy is now palpably weakening, even as most countries are still grappling with the damage […]

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Argentina Once Saw G-20 as a Chance to Shine. Bad News Got in the Way.

BUENOS AIRES — When plans were first made for Argentina to play host to the heads of state of the world’s top economies at this week’s Group of 20 summit meeting, the government saw the gathering as a golden opportunity to portray Argentina as a prosperous, stable nation. But when the world leaders arrive in […]

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For the American Economy, Storm Clouds on the Horizon

WASHINGTON — Emerging signs of weakness in major economic sectors, including auto manufacturing, agriculture and home building, are prompting some forecasters to warn that one of the longest periods of economic growth in American history may be approaching the end of its run. The economy has been a picture of health, expanding at a 3.5 […]

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Markets Are Revealing the Sum of All Risks

ImageMarkets are reflecting gathering risks. A view of the New York Stock Exchange from Federal Hall National Memorial.CreditMary Altaffer/Associated Press The most telling thing about the pummeling that the stock market has taken recently, and especially this week, is that there’s no simple single cause to point to. That reflects the fundamental economic risk for […]

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The Perversion of Fiscal Policy (Slightly Wonkish)

As many people have pointed out, the Trump tax represented a total break with the normal principles of fiscal policy. Historically, we’ve tended to run big deficits when the economy is weak, smaller deficits or surpluses when it’s strong. But now the deficit is soaring even in the face of low unemployment. This is irresponsible, […]

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Nonfiction: Alan Greenspan’s Ode to Creative Destruction

CAPITALISM IN AMERICA A History By Alan Greenspan and Adrian Wooldridge Illustrated. 486 pp. Penguin. $35. At age 92, Alan Greenspan remains a towering figure in American finance. He was the second-longest serving chairman of the Federal Reserve (after William McChesney Martin). Dubbed a “rock star” by The Economist, Greenspan achieved an unprecedented level of […]

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California Is an Economic Powerhouse. Will a New Governor Be Able to Keep It That Way?

LOS ANGELES — It has the highest concentration of billionaires in the country. It exports more computers than any other state. It is the nation’s largest producer of agriculture products by far: More than $6 billion in dairy products alone last year. California is an economic powerhouse — now the fifth largest economy in the […]

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The Most Important Least-Noticed Economic Event of the Decade

Sometimes the most important economic events announce themselves with huge front-page headlines, stock market collapses and frantic intervention by government officials. Other times, a hard-to-explain confluence of forces has enormous economic implications, yet comes and goes without most people even being aware of it. In 2015 and 2016, the United States experienced the second type […]

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As Debt Rises, the Government Will Soon Spend More on Interest Than on the Military

Advertisement Tax cuts, spending increases and higher interest rates could make it harder to respond to future recessions and deal with other needs. ImageInterest payments on the federal debt could surpass the Defense Department budget in 2023.CreditCreditJeon Heon-Kyun/EPA, via Shutterstock Sept. 25, 2018 The federal government could soon pay more in interest on its debt […]

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Steeper Versus Deeper (Wonkish)

Well, this feels a bit like the good old days of econblogging. Ben Bernanke wrote a paper arguing that the financial crisis and the resulting credit crunch were central to the Great Recession. I wrote a piece raising questions about that verdict; now Bernanke has replied to those questions. Dean Baker has already weighed in. […]

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How the Next Downturn Will Surprise Us

After the fall of Lehman Brothers 10 years ago, there was a public debate about how the leading American banks had grown “too big to fail.” But that debate overlooked the larger story, about how the global markets where stocks, bonds and other financial assets are traded had grown worrisomely large. By the eve of […]

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What Do We Actually Know About the Economy? (Wonkish)

The bottom line: the past decade has been a vindication, not a refutation, of good old-fashioned macro. Which brings me to the flip side: microeconomics is not as great as advertised. The dirty little secret of microeconomics I spent much of my academic, pre-public intellectual career straddling two surprisingly distinct economics sub-fields. To normal human […]

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I Came of Age During the 2008 Financial Crisis. I’m Still Angry About It.

Many people have and will continue to condemn me personally for my tremendous but unexceptional student debt, and the ways in which it has made the recession’s effects linger for my family. I’ve spent quite a lot of time in the past decade accepting this blame. The recession may have compounded my family’s economic insecurity, […]

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The Credit Crunch and the Great Recession (Wonkish)

Advertisement Ben Bernanke argues that it was mainly about finance. I have (friendly) questions. Sept. 14, 2018 ImageBen Bernanke argues in a new paper that credit market disruption was the big story of the Great Recession.CreditCreditMinh Uong/The New York Times OK, this is weird. There’s an economic dispute underway about the causes of the Great […]

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