Tag: Recession and Depression

U.K. Economy Shrank as 2023 Ended, Tipping Into Recession

The News Britain’s economy sunk into a recession at the end of last year, capping off a year of economic strain in which interest rates were pushed to their highest level in a decade and a half to stamp out high inflation. Gross domestic product contracted 0.3 percent in October to December from the previous […]

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Japan’s Economy Slips Into Recession and to No. 4 in Global Ranking

The Japanese economy contracted at the end of last year, defying expectations for modest growth and pushing the country into a recession. Japan’s unexpectedly weak economy in the fourth quarter was the result of a slowdown in spending by businesses and consumers who are grappling with inflation at four-decade highs, a weak yen and climbing […]

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Three Lessons From a Surprisingly Resilient Job Market

The pandemic created an economic crisis unlike any recession on record. So perhaps it shouldn’t be surprising that the aftermath, too, has played out in a way that almost no economists expected. When unemployment soared in the first weeks of the pandemic, many feared a repeat of the long, slow rebound from the Great Recession: […]

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Why Are Americans Wary While the Economy Is Healthy? Look at Nevada.

Toni Irizarry recognizes that the economy has improved. Compared with the first wave of the pandemic, when Las Vegas went dark, and joblessness soared to levels not seen since the Great Depression, these are days of relative normalcy. Ms. Irizarry, 64, oversees a cafe at the Orleans Hotel and Casino, a property just off the […]

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The Economy Looks Sunny, a Potential Gain for Biden

A run of strong economic data appears to have finally punctured consumers’ sour mood about the U.S. economy, blasting away recession fears and potentially aiding President Biden in his re-election campaign. Mr. Biden has struggled to sell voters on the positive signs in the economy under his watch, including rapid job gains, low unemployment and […]

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Global Economy Is Heading Toward ‘Soft Landing,’ I.M.F. Says

The global economy has been battered by a pandemic, record levels of inflation, protracted wars and skyrocketing interest rates over the past four years, raising fears of a painful worldwide downturn. But fresh forecasts published on Tuesday suggest that the world has managed to defy the odds, averting the threat of a so-called hard landing. […]

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Eurozone Economy Flatlines, Raising Concerns About Falling Behind

The eurozone economy stagnated late last year as a lingering energy crisis sparked a loss of competitiveness in some European industries, and consumers reined in spending to grapple with high living costs, Europe’s statistics agency reported Tuesday. But economists believe the worst may be over, as the European Central Bank continues its campaign to wring […]

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Economists Predicted a Recession. So Far They’ve Been Wrong.

The recession America was expecting never showed up. Many economists spent early 2023 predicting a painful downturn, a view so widely held that some commentators started to treat it as a given. Inflation had spiked to the highest level in decades, and a range of forecasters thought that it would take a drop in demand […]

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U.S. Economy Grew at 3.3% Rate in Latest Quarter

The U.S. economy continued to grow at a healthy pace at the end of 2023, capping a year in which unemployment remained low, inflation cooled and a widely predicted recession never materialized. Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, grew at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. […]

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The U.S. Seems to Be Dodging a Recession. What Could Go Wrong?

With inflation falling, unemployment low and the Federal Reserve signaling it could soon begin cutting interest rates, forecasters are becoming increasingly optimistic that the U.S. economy could avoid a recession. Wells Fargo last week became the latest big bank to predict that the economy will achieve a soft landing, gently slowing rather than screeching to […]

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From A.I. to inflation, 11 business charts that explain 2023

It has been a confusing year for the economy and markets. At the start of 2023, economists largely predicted a global recession, and Wall Street was bearish on stocks, with many analysts expecting the S&P 500 to finish the year just a touch higher than where it started. Fast-forward 12 months: No recession (yet) and […]

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Wall Street strategists’ bull and bear scenarios for 2024.

Last November and December, veteran stock market watchers forecast that 2023 would be a year to forget. They saw high inflation, a looming global recession and rising interest rates as sapping households’ buying power and denting corporate profits. For investors, they penciled in paltry gains and one of the worst performances for the S&P 500 […]

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The Stock and Bond Markets Are Getting Ahead of the Fed

It’s too early to start celebrating. That’s the Federal Reserve’s sober message — though given half a chance, the markets won’t heed it. In a news conference on Wednesday, and in written statements after its latest policymaking meeting, the Fed did what it could to restrain Wall Street’s enthusiasm. “It’s far too early to declare […]

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Is Jerome Powell’s Fed Pulling Off a Soft Landing?

The Federal Reserve appears to be creeping closer to an outcome that its own staff economists viewed as unlikely just six months ago: lowering inflation back to a normal range without plunging the economy into a recession. Plenty could still go wrong. But inflation has come down notably in recent months — it is running […]

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Why Our “Great” Economy Is Making Young Americans Grumpy

As a part-time commentator on things economic, I’m often asked a seemingly straightforward question: If the economy is so good, why are Americans so grumpy? By many measures — unemployment, inflation, the stock market — the economy is strong. Yet only 23 percent of Americans believe the country is headed in the right direction, a […]

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Some are gloomy, but the overall economic picture remains bright.

Nov. 3, 2023, 6:30 a.m. ET Nov. 3, 2023, 6:30 a.m. ET Many employers are still struggling to find available workers, but the labor market is loosening. At the same time, companies are balancing cost concerns — especially as interest rates remain elevated — with the need to entice employees. Overall, labor market churn has […]

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American Household Wealth Jumped in the Pandemic

American families saw the largest jump in their wealth on record between 2019 and 2022, according to Federal Reserve data released on Wednesday, as rising stock indexes, climbing home prices and repeated rounds of government stimulus left people’s finances healthier. Median net worth climbed by 37 percent over those three years after adjusting for inflation, […]

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U.S. Government Shutdown Is Unlikely to Cause an Immediate Recession

Federal government shutdowns have become so common in recent years that forecasters have a good read on how another one would affect the American economy. The answer is fairly simple: The longer a shutdown lasts, the more damage it is likely to inflict. A brief shutdown would be unlikely to slow the economy significantly or […]

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Is a Recession Near? Paul Krugman and Peter Coy Look Ahead.

Honestly, I don’t know what I believe here. This whole pandemic-driven cycle has, to use the technical term, been weird. Historical analogies don’t seem nearly as useful as they usually are. The economy has been amazingly resilient so far in the face of rate hikes, but I have no idea whether that will continue. Put […]

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How the U.S. Economy Is Taming Inflation Without a Recession

Early this year many economists held a very grim view about the prospects for reducing inflation without a major economic slowdown and a big rise in unemployment. One prominent economist declared that underlying inflation was at least 4.5 percent and that “all the hoped-for saviors” — that is, forces that might bring inflation down painlessly […]

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