Tag: Recession and Depression

Barack Obama’s Biggest Mistake

In 2009, Barack Obama was the most powerful newly elected American president in a generation. Democrats controlled the House and, for about five months in the second half of the year, they enjoyed a filibuster-proof, 60-vote majority in the Senate. For the first six months of his presidency, Obama had an approval rating in the […]

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Fed Cuts Interest Rates by Another Quarter Point

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, its second move since late July, as it tries to insulate the economy against rising political risks and the fallout from a global slowdown. A growing number of officials expect one more reduction this year, based on economic […]

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The U.S. Should Act Before a Global Downturn Destabilizes Latin America

The trade war between the United States and China, coupled with warning signs of a potential slowdown in the global economy, have sharply increased the chances that the world will fall into recession. While nearly every country will be impacted, longstanding economic weakness and the fragile state of its political institutions mean that a potential […]

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How an Oil Price Surge Could Hurt the U.S. Economy

For months, American consumers have kept the economy humming. While businesses pulled back, shoppers continued to spend. But a prolonged surge in gasoline prices after the attacks on oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia could undermine that phenomenon and increase the risk of a recession. “It’s clearly not a positive, and it adds a negative […]

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An Oil Price Surge Could Hurt Consumer Spending, and the Economy

For months, American consumers have kept the economy humming. While businesses pulled back, shoppers continued to spend. But a prolonged surge in gasoline prices after the attacks on oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia could undermine that phenomenon and increase the risk of a recession. “It’s clearly not a positive, and it adds a negative […]

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Trump Urges ‘Big’ Rate Cut as Fed Faces Challenges

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates for the second time this year on Wednesday as policymakers try to get ahead of economic risks emanating from a global slowdown, President Trump’s trade war and uncertainty about the road ahead. The central bank’s leadership is under immense political pressure from Mr. Trump, […]

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The Fed Faces a Tough End to 2019 as Worries Cloud the Horizon

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates for a second time on Wednesday as policymakers try to get ahead of economic risks emanating from a global slowdown, President Trump’s trade war and uncertainty about the road ahead. Investors largely expect a rate cut, but the decision could be contentious as Fed […]

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Recession or Slowdown? Why You Should Care About the Difference

The United States is on recession watch as market signals flash red. Manufacturing is straining under President Trump’s trade war, business investment is slowing and consumer confidence is showing cracks. But many economists expect that growth will weaken slightly over the next couple of years — but not contract — and that distinction is crucial. […]

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E.C.B. Acts to Head Off Threat of Recession in Europe

FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank took steps on Thursday to stimulate the eurozone economy, moving to head off a downturn before the problem gathers momentum. In a bid to increase lending, the bank increased the de facto penalty it imposes on commercial banks that hoard cash. The bank’s Governing Council also said it would […]

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What People Say About the Economy Can Set Off a Recession

When will the next recession arrive? Economists are evaluating such factors as President Trump’s endlessly shifting tariff policy, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and other central banks, and such “leading indicators” as the yields in the bond market. It is good to look at these things. They provide insights about the state of […]

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What Will Be the Economic Backdrop for the 2020 Election? New Data Gives Hints

ImageThe port of Oakland in California this month.CreditJustin Sullivan/Getty Images In a vacuum, the latest numbers on the job market are pretty solid, even good. Most important, while the overall unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent for August, there was real improvement in the details underneath that number: A whopping 571,000 more Americans were […]

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August Jobs Report: What to Look For

The Labor Department will release its estimate of hiring and unemployment for August at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. The monthly report provides a snapshot of the American economy. Here’s what to watch for: Analysts on Wall Street are predicting a gain of 160,000 jobs, according to Bloomberg, compared with an increase of 164,000 in July. […]

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A Recession Isn’t Inevitable: The Case for Economic Optimism

ImageVehicles leaving the assembly line at the G.M. plant in Spring Hill, Tenn., last month. The U.S. manufacturing sector shrank in August, for the first time since 2016.CreditHarrison Mcclary/Reuters There is at least one bull market underway: in recession fears. It’s apparent in how ordinary Americans are thinking about the economy. In August, consumer sentiment […]

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U.S. Manufacturing Slowed in August in Latest Sign of Economic Weakness

The American manufacturing sector contracted last month, a key measure showed on Tuesday, heightening fears that the trade war with China could bring on a recession. Manufacturing accounts for just 11 percent of the country’s gross domestic product, but it is often seen as an economic harbinger. Stocks fell on Wall Street after the release […]

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For Europe, the Threat of a No-Deal Brexit Comes at a Bad Time

LONDON — For a major economy, the best time to descend into befuddling uncertainty over the rules that govern trade is never. As the European Union now confronts the prospect that Britain may bolt its ranks without a deal, most likely triggering mayhem, this is an especially unfortunate moment. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is teetering […]

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Only China Can Save Us Now

In the last few weeks, the world economy has seen worrying turmoil. Whether or not a recession is imminent, there has certainly been a collapse of confidence. What has investors so rattled? There are long-term factors in play, like demographic trends and a slowdown in technological change. But what seems finally to have dawned on […]

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Only the Fed Can Save Us

Here’s the moment I realized the next financial crisis is inevitable. It wasn’t Aug. 23, when the president wondered who was our “bigger enemy,” Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve Board, or President Xi Jinping of China. It wasn’t the week before those comments, when it looked as if the trade war would […]

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Will America Talk Itself Into a Recession? Trump’s Advisers Are Worried

President Trump’s economic advisers do not see a recession on the horizon, but they worry that gloomy news reports and a drumbeat of recession warnings could turn fear of one into reality. In an interview on Thursday, the acting chairman of Mr. Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, Tomas Philipson, said that reporters who have fixated […]

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While Wall St. Talks of Recession, Bond Investors Make a Killing

For stock investors, the trade war has been nothing but trouble. For bond investors, it’s been a dream. Unable to stomach turbulence driven by the escalating conflict between China and the United States, and leery of a darkening outlook for the economy, investors have been pulling money out of the stock market and buying bonds, […]

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