Tag: Recession and Depression

Germany Narrowly Avoids Recession as Trade Tensions Ease

The German economy unexpectedly rebounded in the third quarter as the trade war between America and China lost some of its intensity, assuaging fears of a recession that could drag down the rest of the eurozone. Gross domestic product in Europe’s largest economy grew 0.1 percent compared to the second quarter, when output had fallen […]

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A Recession Warning Reverses, but the Damage May Be Done

The message from Wall Street is clear: The American economy is not in the kind of trouble that investors feared earlier this year. Stocks are at all-time highs and climbing. Yields on long-term government bonds, which reflect expectations for growth and inflation, are also rising. Corporate bond spreads show that investors are more confident in […]

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Recession Fears Are Receding. That Doesn’t Mean They Were Unfounded.

ImageA trader at the New York Stock Exchange in August, during a period when the yield curve was inverted and stocks took a dive. Credit…Richard Drew/Associated Press Imagine you are in a car speeding down the road. An obstruction comes into view, and the passengers in the car yell, “Watch out!” The driver swerves and […]

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It’s a Big Week for Economic News, With Implications for the 2020 Race

ImageThe New York Stock Exchange last month. Stocks have continued to boom. Credit…Johannes Eisele/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images If you want to know what the economic backdrop to the 2020 elections is likely to be, pay close attention to some of this week’s headlines. Over the next few days, we are going to get readings that […]

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In a Strong Economy, Why Are So Many Workers on Strike?

At first glance, it may seem like a paradox: Even as the economy rides a 10-year winning streak, tens of thousands of workers across the country, from General Motors employees to teachers in Chicago, are striking to win better wages and benefits. But, according to those on strike, the strong growth is precisely the point. […]

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Trump’s China Deal Leaves the Global Economy as Uncertain as Ever

WASHINGTON — President Trump’s trade truce with China may have temporarily cooled tensions between the world’s two largest economies. But the damage from Mr. Trump’s aggressive approach to trade policy will continue to weigh on the global economy. The “agreement in principle” with China — which has yet to be finalized — would not roll […]

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How to Invest When the Market Can’t Make Up Its Mind

Stocks have been even more fickle than usual. The main stock indexes are all up this month, and they have had double-digit gains since January. But it has been hard for traders to muster much enthusiasm. Despite the recent rallies, stocks haven’t made substantial net gains since the beginning of last year. For the American […]

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Wall Street’s Sky-High Expectations Are About to Collide With Reality

Wall Street’s eternally optimistic forecasters are expecting corporate profit growth to surge by the middle of next year — views that are about to collide with reality as hundreds of companies report financial results and update investors on their prospects. American companies go through this ritual every three months: sharing financial statements and holding conference […]

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Fed Officials Voice Concern About Slowdown’s Effect on Hiring

WASHINGTON — Several Federal Reserve policymakers, at their most recent meeting, voiced concern that weaker business activity and investment could lead to slower hiring and consumer spending, according to minutes of the meeting published on Wednesday. The Fed cut interest rates for a second time this year at that meeting, in mid-September, after a reduction […]

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Recession Panic May Have Passed. But the Economy Is Still at Risk.

ImageThe manufacturing sector has been slowing in recent months. A steel mill in LaPlace, La., announced it would close in November.CreditGerald Herbert/Associated Press For one brief, terrifying moment this summer, the word “recession” was on everyone’s lips — the stuff of television segments, front-page articles and Google searches. Then, just as abruptly, everything started to […]

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Japan Raises Taxes on Its Spenders Despite Growth Worries

TOKYO — Yasuo Sugiuchi can’t avoid death, but he knew that — if he hurried — he would be able to escape taxes. The 52-year-old owner of a home repair business rushed to buy a new familial cemetery plot to beat a tax increase that could have a profound impact on the country’s spenders. Japan […]

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After the Fed’s Second Rate Cut, Hints of Another to Come

Days after the Federal Reserve lowered borrowing costs for a second time since July, a top Fed official signaled that further interest rate cuts could come before year-end. Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, asked in an interview whether markets had seen the final reduction in borrowing costs for 2019, chose to emphasize that the Fed’s September […]

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Barack Obama’s Biggest Mistake

In 2009, Barack Obama was the most powerful newly elected American president in a generation. Democrats controlled the House and, for about five months in the second half of the year, they enjoyed a filibuster-proof, 60-vote majority in the Senate. For the first six months of his presidency, Obama had an approval rating in the […]

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Fed Cuts Interest Rates by Another Quarter Point

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, its second move since late July, as it tries to insulate the economy against rising political risks and the fallout from a global slowdown. A growing number of officials expect one more reduction this year, based on economic […]

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The U.S. Should Act Before a Global Downturn Destabilizes Latin America

The trade war between the United States and China, coupled with warning signs of a potential slowdown in the global economy, have sharply increased the chances that the world will fall into recession. While nearly every country will be impacted, longstanding economic weakness and the fragile state of its political institutions mean that a potential […]

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How an Oil Price Surge Could Hurt the U.S. Economy

For months, American consumers have kept the economy humming. While businesses pulled back, shoppers continued to spend. But a prolonged surge in gasoline prices after the attacks on oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia could undermine that phenomenon and increase the risk of a recession. “It’s clearly not a positive, and it adds a negative […]

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An Oil Price Surge Could Hurt Consumer Spending, and the Economy

For months, American consumers have kept the economy humming. While businesses pulled back, shoppers continued to spend. But a prolonged surge in gasoline prices after the attacks on oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia could undermine that phenomenon and increase the risk of a recession. “It’s clearly not a positive, and it adds a negative […]

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Trump Urges ‘Big’ Rate Cut as Fed Faces Challenges

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates for the second time this year on Wednesday as policymakers try to get ahead of economic risks emanating from a global slowdown, President Trump’s trade war and uncertainty about the road ahead. The central bank’s leadership is under immense political pressure from Mr. Trump, […]

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The Fed Faces a Tough End to 2019 as Worries Cloud the Horizon

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates for a second time on Wednesday as policymakers try to get ahead of economic risks emanating from a global slowdown, President Trump’s trade war and uncertainty about the road ahead. Investors largely expect a rate cut, but the decision could be contentious as Fed […]

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Recession or Slowdown? Why You Should Care About the Difference

The United States is on recession watch as market signals flash red. Manufacturing is straining under President Trump’s trade war, business investment is slowing and consumer confidence is showing cracks. But many economists expect that growth will weaken slightly over the next couple of years — but not contract — and that distinction is crucial. […]

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E.C.B. Acts to Head Off Threat of Recession in Europe

FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank took steps on Thursday to stimulate the eurozone economy, moving to head off a downturn before the problem gathers momentum. In a bid to increase lending, the bank increased the de facto penalty it imposes on commercial banks that hoard cash. The bank’s Governing Council also said it would […]

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What People Say About the Economy Can Set Off a Recession

When will the next recession arrive? Economists are evaluating such factors as President Trump’s endlessly shifting tariff policy, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and other central banks, and such “leading indicators” as the yields in the bond market. It is good to look at these things. They provide insights about the state of […]

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