The British foreign minister, David Cameron, said it was clear Israel was “making a decision to act” in response to last weekend’s mass Iranian drone and ballistic missile attack. He added he hoped this would be carried out in a way that minimised escalation.
He was speaking on Wednesday after meeting the Israeli president, Isaac Herzog, in Jerusalem, and is probably the first non-Israeli politician to admit some kind of Israeli military reprisal is inevitable.
“It’s right to have made our views clear about what should happen next, but it’s clear the Israelis are making a decision to act,” Cameron told reporters on Wednesday. “We hope they do so in a way that does as little to escalate this as possible.”
Cameron met Herzog alongside the German foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, who was also in Israel on her eighth visit since Hamas mounted its assault on Israel on 7 October, killing 1,200 people and capturing 253 hostages, prompting the Israeli offensive in Gaza that has so far killed an estimated 34,000 Palestinians.
Britain, in conjunction with America and its European allies, has been pressing Israel not to mount a full-scale reprisal for Iran’s mass drone and missile attack. Cameron has urged Israel to be governed by its head, as well as its heart, and to regard the destruction of most of the Iranian missiles and drones directed at Israel over the weekend as a win.
He argued it was more important to focus on freeing the hostages from Hamas, getting aid supplies to the Gaza Strip and achieving a ceasefire in the conflict. He said he wanted to press for this in talks with the Palestinian Authority. The UK prime minister, Rishi Sunak, delivered a similar message by phone to the Israeli prime minister on Tuesday.
In a statement issued by Herzog’s office after the meeting, Herzog said the leadership in Tehran was endangering stability in the entire region with its actions.
“The entire world must act decisively and decisively against the threat to the Iranian regime,” the statement said.
The UK foreign secretary is also due to meet the Israeli foreign affairs minister, Israel Katz, and will hold talks with Mohammad Mustafa, the prime minister of the Palestinian Authority.
One of the side-effects of the Iranian assault has been to reduce some of the pressure on Israel to do more to improve humanitarian aid flows into Gaza.
The UK remains deeply concerned that if the media and diplomatic pressure is eased Israel may not fulfil its pledges given a fortnight ago to the US president, Joe Biden, to allow more aid through more crossings.
Iran has daily threatened a severe and major escalation if Israel does launch an attack, insisting it will provide no advance warning as it did over the weekend.
But officials admit Iran’s response will be calibrated according to Israel’s own attack, including whether it is directed on Iranian soil, or instead seeks to attack Iranian assets in Syria and elsewhere. At the annual military parade in Tehran, the Iranian president, Ebrahim Raisi, warned Israel that even the “smallest invasion” by Israel would lead to a “massive and harsh” reaction.
Iran’s attack last weekend had only limited targets, Raisi said, adding that a larger attack could hit Israel much harder.
The latest round of tit for tit violence broke out when Israel on 1 April killed seven Iranian commanders, including two Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) generals, in Iran’s consulate in Damascus. Some Israeli sources have said the target was legitimate since the Iranians were using the building to mount attacks on Israel, thus losing the diplomatic immunity provided by the Vienna convention.
The US state department on Tuesday said it was still carrying out an investigation into whether the consulate was a diplomatic building or not. The US said it was relying on intelligence capabilities and allies on the ground to ascertain the true purpose of the building.
Cameron added he wanted to see coordinated sanctions against Iran, and that would be the key purpose of a G7 foreign ministers’ meeting starting formally on Thursday in Capri. He argued Iran must be “given a clear unequivocal message” over its support for Hamas, its Lebanon-based ally Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels.
“I hope that will happen at the meeting,” he added.
Iran is already probably the most heavily sanctioned country on earth.
The most effective way to sanction Iran would be to hit the Chinese banks and energy firms involved in importing Iranian oil, the single largest revenue earner for Tehran, but the US is reluctant to become embroiled in a sanctions war with China, and does not want to see petrol prices rise in the midst of a presidential election.
Britain is also pressing Israel to realise that the nascent anti-Iranian sentiment in the Gulf states provides an opportunity for Israel to forge stronger links with Arab nations, so isolating Iran.
Tensions between Jordan and Iran have emerged over Jordan’s decision to knock out Iranian drones heading for Israel.
It has also been reported that Egypt was still negotiating with Iran three hours before the attack was launched, saying it was seeking understandings from Israel over a ceasefire and an Israeli commitment not to attack Rafah.
Iranian diplomats insisted they wanted a UN security council statement condemning the Israeli attack on Iran’s consulate, but Washington rejected the proposal.
It was also reported in the Iranian media that it was the IRGC, and not the Iranian foreign ministry, that summoned the conduit for Iranian-US relations, the Swiss ambassador in Tehran, at 3am on Sunday morning of the Iranian attack to convey the message that Tehran was prepared to go further if the US intervened.