Tag: United States Economy

Stocks lose early gains as investors weigh G.D.P. report with fears of higher interest rates.

Stocks struggled to find direction on Thursday, continuing this week’s volatile trading, as investors reviewed new data on the state of the economy and priced in their worries about the Federal Reserve’s plan to raise interest rates. The S&P 500 swung from gains to losses in midday trading, flirting with correction territory for the third […]

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G.D.P. Report Shows Inflation Bite in Economy

Here’s a notable fact about the U.S. economic recovery: Inflation-adjusted output last quarter was just 1 percent below where it would have been if the pandemic had never happened. Here’s another one: Ignoring inflation, output is 1.7 percent above where it would have been absent the coronavirus. Those two facts help explain the confusing, contradictory […]

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U.S. Economy Grew 1.7% in 4th Quarter, Capping a Strong Year

A Gallup survey conducted this month found that Americans view the economy more negatively than positively — with only 29 percent saying that the economy is improving, while 67 percent believe it is getting worse. Still, 72 percent say it is a good time to find a quality job. “It’s all about what you prioritize,” […]

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Fed Signals Rate Increase in March, Citing Inflation and Strong Job Market

Federal Reserve officials signaled on Wednesday that they were on track to raise interest rates in March, given that inflation has been running far above policymakers’ target and that labor market data suggests employees are in short supply. Central bankers left rates unchanged at near-zero — where they have been set since March 2020 — […]

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Is the Great Resignation Overblown?

We’ve been bombarded by headlines about the Great Resignation. “Workers Are Quitting Their Jobs in Record Numbers.” “We’ve Become a Nation of Quitters.” “The Great Resignation Is Accelerating.” The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which isn’t given to exaggeration, has fed the coverage with headlines like this one, which it published on Jan. 6: “Number of […]

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Jerome Powell is taking questions. Follow the market reaction.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it would “soon” be appropriate to raise interest rates, as inflation runs above policymakers’ preferred target and the job market strengthens. Although central bankers left rates unchanged at near-zero — where they have been set since March 2020 — the revised statement after their two-day policy meeting laid the […]

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The Year of American Disappointment

So we face the specter of a world where the illness is endemic on a scale that isn’t disastrous but also isn’t great, with a spike in the air-conditioned states every summer and a flu-Covid double whammy every winter: a new normal that makes everybody’s life a little more stressful, that drags modestly but meaningfully […]

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This Is What Made Covid the ‘Almost Ideal Polarizing Crisis’

“The success of redistribution at stemming the tide of polarization in our model is striking,” Stewart, Plotkin and McCarty write, “and it suggests a possible path for preventing such attitudes from taking hold in future.” In a reflection of the staying power of polarization, the authors observe that “once polarization sets in, it typically remains […]

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The Reality of Inflation and Rate of Change in Real Wages

President Biden had what I’d call a human moment yesterday. After a Fox News correspondent shouted out a question about whether inflation would be a political liability, Biden could be heard muttering: “No, it’s a great asset. More inflation. What a stupid son of a bitch.” Seriously, can you blame him? But why is inflation […]

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Commerce Department Survey Uncovers ‘Alarming’ Chip Shortages

WASHINGTON — The United States is facing an “alarming” shortage of semiconductors, a government survey of more than 150 companies that make and buy chips found; the situation is threatening American factory production and helping to fuel inflation, Gina M. Raimondo, the commerce secretary, said in an interview on Monday. She said the findings showed […]

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I.M.F. Forecasts U.S. and China Slowdowns Will Hold Back Growth

Slowdowns in the world’s two biggest economies — the United States and China — are likely to be larger than expected this year, dragging down output on every continent and reducing global growth, a new report warned on Tuesday. “The global economy enters 2022 in a weaker position than previously expected,” the International Monetary Fund […]

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Fed’s Policy Pivot May Prove Late and Abrupt, Critics Fret

That caused the Fed to change course late last year — and to do so fairly abruptly. “Inflation really popped up in the late spring last year, and we had a view — it was very, very widely held in the forecasting community — that this would be temporary,” Mr. Powell said in December. But […]

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S&P 500 Rallies After Touching Correction Territory, Erasing Day’s Losses

So a slide in prices that removes some of that excess was long overdue, many market watchers said. “We haven’t had a correction in a long time,” said Lindsey Bell, the chief money and markets strategist at Ally Invest. “While this sell-off in the past couple of weeks feels uncomfortable, the good news is that, […]

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Omicron Is the Latest Covid Blow to the Economy

Covid-related absences are creating headaches for businesses that were struggling to hire workers even before Omicron. Restaurants and retail stores have cut back hours. Broadway shows called off performances. Airlines canceled thousands of flights over the holidays because so many crew members called in sick; on one day last month, nearly a third of United […]

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Omicron’s Economic Toll: Missing Workers, More Uncertainty and Higher Inflation (Maybe)

Covid-related absences are creating headaches for businesses that were struggling to hire workers even before Omicron. Restaurants and retail stores have cut back hours. Broadway shows called off performances. Airlines canceled thousands of flights over the holidays because so many crew members called in sick; on one day last month, nearly a third of United […]

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Personal Profit in Congress

In an academic paper published a few years ago, an economist named Serkan Karadas highlighted a suspicious pattern: Members of Congress earned higher than average returns on their stock investments. The findings suggested that at least some Congress members were profiting off their jobs. With inside knowledge about forthcoming policy changes or economic developments, the […]

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Rapid Inflation Fuels Debate Over What’s to Blame: Pandemic or Policy

The price increases bedeviling consumers, businesses and policymakers worldwide have prompted a heated debate in Washington about how much of today’s rapid inflation is a result of policy choices in the United States and how much stems from global factors tied to the pandemic, like snarled supply chains. At a moment when stubbornly rapid price […]

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President Biden’s Economy Is Failing the Big Mac Test

Economic output, or gross domestic product, has climbed above its pre-crisis level. Investors have reason to be happy, too: The S&P 500, a broad measure of the stock market, rose by 19.3 percent during Mr. Biden’s first year as president. The markets’ large losses this past week wiped out only a small portion of those […]

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Biden Looks to Intel’s U.S. Investment to Buoy His China Agenda

WASHINGTON — In celebrating a $20 billion investment by Intel in a new semiconductor plant in Ohio, President Biden sought on Friday to jump-start a stalled element of his economic and national security agenda: a huge federal investment in manufacturing, research and development in technologies that China is also seeking to dominate. With two other […]

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Stock Markets Off to Worst Start Since 2016 as Fed Fights Inflation

After falling for a fourth day in a row on Friday, the stock market suffered its worst week in nearly two years, and so far in January the S&P 500 is off to its worst start since 2016. Technology stocks have been hit especially hard, with the Nasdaq Composite Index dropping more than 10 percent […]

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Economic Trends Aren’t What They Used to Be

Back in 2010 a group of conservative academics, economists and money managers signed an open letter warning that the efforts of the Federal Reserve to support the economy would be dangerously inflationary. But the inflation never came. So four years later Bloomberg reached out to as many of the signatories as they could, to ask […]

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The View From the White House

So now we’ve been through a yet larger pandemic. Are there things you’ve learned on how the U.S. government should structurally be set up to operate during a pandemic that we need to take into account, going forward? It can’t be that we are optimally set up for it, so are there ways the structure […]

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Biden Versus the Friends of Covid

President Biden ended his first year in office on a low note, with polls showing public disapproval of his handling of, well, just about everything. We are, of course, hearing endless commentary about his political missteps, along with some acknowledgment that public expectations were too high given the razor-thin Democratic majority in Congress. One thing […]

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