Subway service in New York City slashed by 40 percent. Bus routes eliminated and service on the rest cut by a third. Service on two of the country’s busiest commuter rails reduced by half.
This is the sober scenario the Metropolitan Transportation Authority laid out on Wednesday as the agency faces a deadline to balance its budget while grappling with an enormous multibillion-dollar financial hole caused by the pandemic and little prospect of any immediate relief from Washington.
Transit officials say their doomsday plan is a worst-case scenario made necessary because even with President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. assuming office in January, it is unclear if there will be a breakthrough in Congress on another stimulus package.
The M.T.A., the nation’s largest transit agency — which operates the subway, buses and two commuter rails — is seeking $12 billion in federal aid, an outcome that is far less likely if Republicans retain control of the Senate.
Without federal help and with the state and city facing their own financial emergencies, the agency said it would be forced to impose some version of its proposed cuts, a move that would damage the region’s lifeline and undermine New York’s recovery from the pandemic.
“New York was already going to have a difficult time,” said Nick Sifuentes, executive director of the Tri-State Transportation Campaign, an advocacy group. “But these cuts on transit are like doubling down on the difficulty level of New York getting back on its collective feet again. What might have taken a couple of years could now potentially take decades.”
In recent months, the M.T.A., which received $4 billion in an earlier federal stimulus bill, has painted increasingly grim pictures of the transit system’s future as part of a strategy to pressure Congress into providing more support.
But with a looming Dec. 31 deadline for passing next year’s budget, transit officials have been forced to provide some more details about what the sweeping cuts they first announced in August might include, alarming riders, union officials and elected leaders. The agency is expected to provide more specifics next month before adopting its 2021 budget.
On Wednesday, the agency said subway weekend service would be hit hardest by cuts, with 15-minute wait times between trains and some lines eliminated entirely. Service cuts for buses would affect up to a quarter of all bus routes — especially those with low ridership — though no bus riders would be more than half of a mile from another bus line or subway station.
And on the Long Island Rail Road and Metro North commuter rails, service could be reduced on some lines while others eliminated entirely on weekdays and weekends.
Transit officials also announced that they would slash 9,367 jobs from the transit work force, nearly half of which would come from the division that runs bus service. Union leaders warned that such a drastic step would provoke a fiery response from their members, including a work slowdown that would worsen service even before any official cuts were made.
“The New York City Transit work force will correctly view this as the greatest betrayal of their careers,” said John Samuelsen, the international president of the powerful Transit Workers Union. “There will be a rank-and-file rebellion, which will lead to chaos. It will lead to a disruption in service.”
“M.T.A. workers control production maintenance and on-time performance on buses and the subway,” he added. “They don’t need to strike to make their voices heard.”
Transit officials portrayed their proposal as a response to two bleak realities — the agency’s $16.4 billion deficit through 2024 and a ridership that has stalled at around 30 percent of pre-pandemic levels.
The latest analysis of M.T.A. finances and ridership by the consulting giant McKinsey & Company projects that even in the best-case scenario, ridership will not reach 80 percent of pre-pandemic levels before 2024.
“We’re going to have to match our service structure and service schedules to equal rider demand,” Robert Foran, the agency’s chief financial officer, said at the M.T.A. board meeting on Wednesday. “This is just ugly. This though is something we have to consider, you know, if we’re going to survive.”