by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2020 10:03:00 AM
NOTE: All of these numbers are on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR).
In the Personal Income & Outlays report for June, the BEA noted that “Personal income decreased $222.8 billion (1.1 percent) in June”. This decrease in Personal Income was due to a decrease in transfer payments.
Transfer payments decreased by $0.5 trillion in June (SAAR), after decreasing by $1.2 trillion in May, and increasing by $3.3 trillion in April.
Unemployment insurance increased from $74 billion in March (SAAR), to $473 billion in April, to $1.31 trillion in May, to $1.42 trillion in June..
And “Other” decreased by $611 billion in June (SAAR).
Without the decrease in transfer payments, Personal Income in June would have increased about 1.0%.
A key measure of the health of the economy (Used by NBER in recession dating) is Real Personal Income less Transfer payments.
This graph shows real personal income less transfer payments since 1990.
This measure of economic activity decreased 2.9% in March, compared to February, and another 6.1% in April (compared to March).
This measure increased 1.5% in May compared to April, and increased 1.4% in June, but is still down 5.8% compared to February (pre-recession).