Tag: Protectionism (Trade)

China’s Hard-Liners Win a Round in Trump’s Trade Deal

BEIJING — President Trump’s initial retreat from his trade-war threats has handed hard-liners in China a victory. A longer, pricklier trade war and stiff Chinese resistance to economic reforms could result. Mr. Trump on Friday outlined a partial trade deal that deferred new tariffs on $160 billion a year in Chinese-made goods, a move that […]

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British Election, Advancing Brexit, Heralds End of a Global Trade Era

LONDON — For more than seven decades, the global powers that be operated on the assumption that greater economic integration amounts to historical progress. But that era is over, as Britain’s voters have now made clear. The decisive majority secured by Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Conservative Party all but ensures that the country […]

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The New NAFTA Is Better Than No NAFTA at All

The updated version of the North American Free Trade Agreement unveiled this week does not represent a clear improvement on the original 1994 deal. There are changes for the better, like Mexico’s agreement to adopt stronger protections for labor unions and Canada’s agreement to allow the sale of more American dairy products. But there are […]

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Manufacturing Ain’t Great Again. Why?

When Donald Trump promised to Make America Great Again, his slogan meant different things to different people. For many supporters it meant restoring the political and social dominance of white people, white men in particular. For others, however, it meant restoring the kind of economy we had a generation or two ago, which offered lots […]

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Trump’s China Deal Leaves the Global Economy as Uncertain as Ever

WASHINGTON — President Trump’s trade truce with China may have temporarily cooled tensions between the world’s two largest economies. But the damage from Mr. Trump’s aggressive approach to trade policy will continue to weigh on the global economy. The “agreement in principle” with China — which has yet to be finalized — would not roll […]

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What’s Really in the Trade Deal Trump Announced With China

President Trump portrayed the “Phase 1” agreement he announced on Friday with China with typical fanfare, describing the pact as “massive” and “the largest contract” ever signed. “We made a fantastic deal,” Mr. Trump said during remarks on Tuesday at the White House. There are good reasons to be skeptical about those claims. The deal […]

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Why We Worry About the U.S.-China Trade War

The 18-month trade war between the United States and China represents the single greatest threat to global economic growth today. A failure to bring the trade war to a satisfactory conclusion significantly increases the risk of recession next year in the United States, Europe, Japan and other developed and emerging economies. It would also seriously […]

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Only China Can Save Us Now

In the last few weeks, the world economy has seen worrying turmoil. Whether or not a recession is imminent, there has certainly been a collapse of confidence. What has investors so rattled? There are long-term factors in play, like demographic trends and a slowdown in technological change. But what seems finally to have dawned on […]

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Trump’s Trade War Washes Up on Australia’s Shore

WASHINGTON — Australia’s economy is experiencing its 28th year of a record-shattering expansion, with strong employment growth and high economic potential. But the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates to a record low last month — a development that underscores how intertwined the global economy has become and how big a threat President Trump’s trade […]

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Trump and the Art of the Flail

The “very stable genius” in the Oval Office is, in fact, extremely unstable, in word and deed. That’s not a psychological diagnosis, although you can make that case too. It’s just a straightforward description of his behavior. And his instability is starting to have serious economic consequences. To see what I mean about Trump’s behavior, […]

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At G7 Summit, Trump Meets Allies Who Remain Wary of Him

Here’s what you need to know: ImagePresident Trump and President Emmanuel Macron of France at the G7 summit in Biarritz, France.CreditErin Schaff/The New York Times Trump has backed away from his latest threat in the trade war with China. President Trump backed off a threat to escalate his trade war with China, admitting to “second […]

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Fed Was Divided About Interest Rate Cut

WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve officials were sharply divided when they voted to cut interest rates for the first time in a decade in late July, newly-released minutes from their meeting last month show. Officials lowered borrowing costs by a quarter of a percentage point at their last meeting, citing slowing global growth, uncertainties from President […]

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How World Leaders Ruined the Global Economy

Why are so many key global leaders pursuing so many stupid economic policies? As recently as January 2018, the International Monetary Fund issued one of its most upbeat economic forecasts in recent years, extolling “broad based” growth, with “notable upside surprises.” By last month, the fund had sliced its forecast for expansion this year to […]

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Tariff Tantrums and Recession Risks

If the bond market is any indication, Donald Trump’s escalating belligerence on trade is creating seriously increased risks of recession. But I haven’t seen many clear explanations of why that might be so. The problem isn’t just, or even mainly, that he really does seem to be a Tariff Man. What’s more important is that […]

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Global Stocks Slide After China Lets Currency Dip, Raising Tensions With U.S.

Global stocks dropped sharply on Monday after China let its tightly controlled currency sink to an 11-year low against the dollar, stoking investors’ concerns that Beijing may be using the renminbi as a weapon in the escalating trade war between the world’s two largest economies. On Wall Street, shares tumbled more than 1.5 percent at […]

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China Hints at Weaponizing Its Currency, Rattling Markets

BEIJING — The trade war between the United States and China may be about to enter a more dangerous phase, one that could saddle the global financial system with new risks at an already turbulent time. That prospect, which would see Beijing using the value of its currency as a weapon to strike back at […]

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Trump’s Trade Quagmire (Wonkish)

Remember the Vietnam quagmire? (Actually, I hope many of my readers are young enough that they don’t, but you’ve presumably heard about it.) In political discourse, “quagmire” has come to have a quite specific meaning. It’s what happens when a government has committed itself to a policy that isn’t working, but can’t bring itself to […]

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Echo Trump’s Tough Talk, or Lift Tariffs? Democrats Clash Over Trade

WASHINGTON — Democratic presidential candidates clashed in a Tuesday night debate over how they would change course from President Trump’s protectionist trade agenda in fiery exchanges that underscored the depth of the rift within the party over economic policy. The strength of the United States economy, which has enjoyed steady growth and historically low unemployment […]

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U.S. Begins Inquiry Into French Digital Services Tax That May End in Tariffs

WASHINGTON — The Trump administration said on Wednesday that it would investigate whether a French plan to impose a tax on big American technology companies amounts to an unfair trade practice that could be punished with retaliatory tariffs, escalating its global trade fight. The investigation, which will be carried out by the United States trade […]

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Lagarde Departure Stirs Succession Speculation at I.M.F.

WASHINGTON — With Christine Lagarde, the current leader of the International Monetary Fund, poised to become the next president of the European Central Bank, the big questions on Wednesday were who would succeed her and whether the United States would break with tradition and try to install an American in the post. On Tuesday, European […]

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E.U. Signs Trade Deal With Vietnam

The European Union signed a trade deal with Vietnam on Sunday, underscoring the bloc’s commitment to opening up its market and trading freely in the face of rising protectionism and trade tensions around the world. The signing ceremony in Hanoi came just two days after the European Union had agreed to another, much bigger, free […]

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Global Economic Growth Is Already Slowing. The U.S. Trade War Is Making It Worse.

WASHINGTON — President Trump’s trade war is chilling business investment, confidence and trade flows across the world, a development that foreign leaders and business executives say is worsening a global economic slowdown that was already underway. Recent softening in Europe, Australia and other parts of the world coincides with Mr. Trump’s intensified trade fight with […]

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World Economic Leaders Warn of Fallout From Trade War Between U.S. and China

FUKUOKA, Japan — Global finance leaders meeting in Japan this weekend said they were increasingly worried that the trade dispute between the United States and China, which shows no signs of abating, could propel the world economy into a crisis. The sense of gloom at the gathering of the Group of 20 major economies came […]

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