Tag: Polls and Public Opinion

Eric Adams’s Approval Sinks to Lowest for Any NYC Mayor in 27 Years

Mayor Eric Adams, who faces a federal investigation into his campaign fund-raising and rampant criticism over his handling of the migrant crisis, has seen his approval rating plunge to 28 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday. The approval rating — the lowest for any New York City mayor in a Quinnipiac […]

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‘This Is Grim,’ One Democratic Pollster Says

In addition, Kessler wrote, in the past month, The price of gasoline has fallen 20-cents to a national average of $3.24 a gallon. Headline and core inflation have begun their final descent toward benign, historic levels. Interest rates have fallen about 40 basis points in the past several months. The so-called “misery index” (inflation + […]

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Biden Says ‘I’m Not Sure I’d Be Running’ if Not for Trump

President Biden suggested on Tuesday that he might have been content to serve only a single term if his predecessor, former President Donald J. Trump, were not attempting to recapture the White House. At a campaign fund-raiser in the Boston area, Mr. Biden presented his decision to run for re-election as driven largely by his […]

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Republicans Weigh New Debate Rules That Could Lead to More Onstage Clashes

The next Republican debate on Wednesday could be the last one sponsored by the Republican National Committee in the 2024 primary race, with the party considering debate rule changes that would open the door to more onstage clashes but also diminish the fanfare around them. The debate in Tuscaloosa, Ala., comes as Nikki Haley, the […]

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Why Haley Is Rising Among the Rivals to Trump

If you dozed off while following the Republican primary, I wouldn’t blame you. But it might be worth perking up for a moment. Over the last few months, Nikki Haley has gained enough in the polls that she might be on the verge of surpassing Ron DeSantis as Donald J. Trump’s principal rival in the […]

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The Wild Card in Taiwan’s Election: Frustrated Young Voters

In the months leading up to a pivotal presidential election for Taiwan, candidates have focused on who can best handle the island democracy’s volatile relationship with China, with its worries about the risks of war. But at a recent forum in Taipei, younger voters instead peppered two of the candidates with questions about everyday issues […]

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Israeli Intelligence Errors Over Hamas Attack Plan Prompt Scrutiny, but Little Backlash

Israel’s military leadership faced heightened public scrutiny this week after a string of damaging revelations in the Israeli media and The New York Times suggested that senior officers had ignored or dismissed intelligence reports about the likelihood of a major Hamas attack. According to those reports, the Israeli military obtained a copy of a battle […]

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Israelis Are Angry at Netanyahu, but Replacing Him Is Difficult

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, has weathered many controversies, including accusations of corruption and allegations this year that a contentious overhaul of the country’s judiciary was a poorly disguised power grab. But he now faces the greatest crisis of his political career. The backlash to his government’s failures to prevent the Oct. 7 Hamas-led […]

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There’s a Bomb Under the Table

Alfred Hitchcock explained the nature of cinematic terror with a story about the bomb under the table. People are sitting around a table having a mundane conversation about baseball when — boom! — a bomb goes off, instantly killing everyone. You’ve momentarily surprised the audience. But what if, Hitchcock asked, we are shown beforehand that […]

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Could a Democrat Really Challenge Biden at This Point? Here’s What to Know.

The Democratic anxiety that has swirled around President Biden for over a year has kicked into overdrive in recent weeks, as his approval ratings have stayed stubbornly low and polls have shown the possibility of his losing to former President Donald J. Trump. That anxiety has crystallized into one question, repeated like a drumbeat: Can’t […]

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Biden Takes on MAGA Republicans in Boebert’s Backyard

President Biden’s visit to a wind turbine factory in Colorado on Wednesday was as much a rebuke of his far-right opponents in Congress as it was an official stop to show off investments in clean energy and manufacturing. Mr. Biden toured the Pueblo factory of CS Wind, which lies in the district of Representative Lauren […]

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An Electorate in Revolt Threatens Biden’s Chances

I know all the warnings and caveats about polls taken a year before an election. But much of the recent polling on the 2024 election is still frightening and disconcerting. We shouldn’t be here. We have a president who, on the whole, has had a successful first term and has capably performed the principal function […]

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Koch Network Endorses Nikki Haley in Bid to Push GOP Past Trump

The political network founded by the Koch brothers is endorsing Nikki Haley in the Republican presidential primary race, giving her organizational muscle and financial heft as she battles Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida for second place in Iowa. The group announced its plans in a memo on Tuesday. The commitment by the network, Americans for […]

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Even Most Biden Voters Don’t See a Thriving Economy

It’s difficult for presidents to directly control inflation in the short term. But the White House has addressed a few specific costs that matter for families, by releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to contain surging oil prices in late 2022, for example. The Inflation Reduction Act reduced prescription drug prices under Medicare and […]

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There’s a Lot Riding on Black Friday and Cyber Monday

The consumer is back — but for how long? Black Friday and today’s Cyber Monday shopping bonanzas hold outsize political significance this year with the retailing events emerging as key recession and inflation indicators. So far, so good. Bargain hunters turned out in force for Black Friday sales, and Cyber Monday is forecast to be […]

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Why Biden’s Weakness Among Young Voters Should Be Taken Seriously

Could President Biden and Donald J. Trump really be locked in a close race among young voters — a group Democrats typically carry by double digits — as the recent Times/Siena polls suggest? To many of our readers and others, it’s a little hard to believe — so hard to believe that it seems to […]

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Let’s Talk About Biden, Trump and … Taylor Swift

Bret Stephens: Hope you had a lovely Thanksgiving, Gail. Peggy Noonan had a terrific column last week in The Wall Street Journal, making the case for why Taylor Swift should be Time’s Person of the Year. Aside from the fact that her Eras tour transformed the economy of many of the cities in which she […]

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Can the Palestinian Authority Really Govern Gaza After the War?

Lanky and lightly bearded, Jihad Imtoor is the proud son of a fighter killed in the first intifada, or uprising, against Israel. His father was a member of Fatah, the political faction that controls the Palestinian Authority. But he has had enough of its rule in the West Bank. On a recent day, Mr. Imtoor, […]

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Dutch Election Results Deliver a Turn to the Far Right

The Netherlands, long regarded as one of Europe’s most socially liberal countries, woke up to a drastically changed political landscape on Thursday after a far-right party swept national elections in a result that has reverberated throughout Europe. Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom, which advocates banning the Quran, closing Islamic schools and entirely halting the acceptance […]

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Putin Eyes Another Term as President, With War as Backdrop

When asked last week what kind of leader should replace President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, his longtime spokesman gave a quick and simple answer: “the same.” “Or different, but the same,” the spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, told a Russian television network, adding that he was confident that should Mr. Putin run, he would win […]

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Dutch Election: Unpredictable Vote May Elevate a Centrist

After 13 years with Mark Rutte as their prime minister, the Dutch will cast their ballots on Wednesday in a national election that is expected to scatter votes across the spectrum. But there is one man who has emerged as the campaign’s chief protagonist. It is Pieter Omtzigt, a longtime parliamentarian and founder of a […]

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We Did an Experiment to See How Much Democracy and Abortion Matter to Voters

Do abortion and democracy matter to voters? If you look at the results of New York Times/Siena College polling, the answer often seems to be “not really.” Around 40 percent of voters agreed that Donald J. Trump was “bad” for democracy in our latest poll. Only around a quarter said that issues like democracy and […]

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The Crisis in Issue Polling, and What We’re Doing About It

By the usual measures, last year’s midterm polls were among the most accurate on record. But in harder-to-measure ways, there’s a case those same polls were extraordinarily bad. Poll after poll seemed to tell a clear story before the election: Voters were driven more by the economy, immigration and crime than abortion and democracy, helping […]

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Israel Says Gaza Hospital Held Hamas Command Center: What We Know So Far

Israel is trying to produce solid evidence for its assertion that Hamas has been using tunnels under Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza as a command center. But an Israeli military-led tour of the hospital grounds with journalists Thursday night showed directly only a shaft in the ground with a staircase, which did not settle the issue. […]

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Want to Know What’s Bedeviling Biden? TikTok Economics May Hold Clues.

Look at economic data, and you’d think that young voters would be riding high right now. Unemployment remains low. Job opportunities are plentiful. Inequality is down, wage growth is finally beating inflation, and the economy has expanded rapidly this year. Look at TikTok, and you get a very different impression — one that seems more […]

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We Talked to Some Kamala-but-Not-Joe Voters. Here’s What They Said.

In our recent poll of voters in battleground states, we asked how people would vote if Kamala Harris were running for president. Though Donald J. Trump still led in this hypothetical matchup, Vice President Harris performed slightly better than President Biden. She did particularly well among young and nonwhite voters — voters who were a […]

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The Bush-Obama Blueprint That Gives Biden Hope for ’24

Well before Election Day in 2004, President George W. Bush was warned by strategists that he would face a tough campaign battle because of voter distress over the war in Iraq and over the economy — two issues he had once hoped to ride to a second term. Mr. Bush’s aides moved quickly to retool […]

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Overturning Roe Changed Everything. Overturning Affirmative Action Did Not.

In that context, Dias wrote in his email, it would be inaccurate to say that policies designed to benefit minority constituencies have run their course. There’s plenty of evidence that members of these constituencies lack economic opportunities or cannot meet their needs. However, I think many Americans need to be convinced of that. In a […]

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Why Trump Seems Less Vulnerable on Abortion Than Other Republicans

Donald J. Trump is showing surprising resilience on the abortion issue, appearing less vulnerable than fellow Republicans despite his key role in shaping the Supreme Court that overturned Roe v. Wade. An Ohio referendum last Tuesday guaranteeing abortion access and similar election results have bolstered Democrats’ hopes that they could repeat those successes in 2024. […]

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Why Trump Seems Less Vulnerable on Abortion Than Other Republicans

Donald J. Trump is showing surprising resilience on the abortion issue, appearing less vulnerable than fellow Republicans despite his key role in shaping the Supreme Court that overturned Roe v. Wade. An Ohio referendum last Tuesday guaranteeing abortion access and similar election results have bolstered Democrats’ hopes that they could repeat those successes in 2024. […]

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