Tag: Polls and Public Opinion

What You Need to Know About Italy’s Elections

ROME — Italians vote on Sunday for the first time in almost five years in national elections that will usher in a new, and polls predict, right-wing government that will face economic challenges, a deepening energy crisis, and questions about Italy’s hard line against Russia and its full-throated support for the European Union. The elections […]

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Trump Support Remains Unmoved by Investigations, Poll Finds

The American public’s views of former President Donald J. Trump have remained remarkably stable across a number of different measures in recent months, even as he faces multiple investigations and as he remains a central figure in the midterm elections, according to the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll. Voters held nearly identical views […]

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A Shrinking Margin

In Barack Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign, he won the Hispanic vote over Mitt Romney by 40 percentage points — 70 percent to 30 percent, according to Catalist, a political research firm. Four years later, Hillary Clinton did even better, beating Donald Trump by 42 percentage points among Hispanic voters. But then something changed. The economy […]

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Perfectly Reasonable Question: Can We Trust the Polls?

Last Monday, I wrote about the early “warning signs” in this year’s Senate polling. Then three days later, I helped write up the results of a new national survey: a New York Times/Siena College poll showing Democrats up by two percentage points in the generic ballot among registered voters. If you thought that was a […]

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Democracy Challenged

This is an election year unlike any we’ve experienced in recent decades. Not only do candidates of both major parties in the United States have starkly different views on the pressing issues of the day, including climate change, war, taxes, abortion, education, gender and sexual identity, immigration, crime and the role of government in American […]

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Inflation Remains Voters’ Top Concern. Can Republicans Keep Their Focus?

Zach Nunn, an Iowa Republican challenging one of the House’s most vulnerable Democrats, had been talking for months about rising prices when a Texas congressman two weeks ago invited him to visit the Mexican border — to see the fentanyl confiscated, hear tales of dying migrants and witness overwhelmed border agents. Mr. Nunn took it […]

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Majority of Latino Voters Out of G.O.P.’s Reach, New Poll Shows

“I don’t consider myself a Democrat or Republican — I am on standby right now until the next election,” she said. In their effort to attract new voters, Republicans have frequently criticized Democrats as being too “woke.” The accusation resonates with many Hispanic voters, with 40 percent saying that the party has gone too far […]

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‘A Crisis Coming’: The Twin Threats to American Democracy

Most Republican politicians who have confronted Mr. Trump, on the other hand, have since lost their jobs or soon will. Of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach him for his role in the Jan. 6 attack, for example, eight have since decided to retire or lost Republican primaries, including Representative Liz Cheney of […]

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Republicans on the Defensive on Abortion and Other Social Issues

WASHINGTON — Republicans have perfected the art of keeping the heat on Democrats on the searing social issues of the day, but this election year, it seems to be Republicans who are getting scorched. During a midterm cycle that seemed tailor-made for significant Republican gains in the House and Senate, Democrats have managed to grab […]

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Rally With Trump? Some G.O.P. Candidates Aren’t Thrilled About It.

Former President Donald J. Trump is preparing to swoop into Ohio on Saturday to rally Republicans behind J.D. Vance in a key Senate race. Two weeks earlier, he did the same for Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania. Neither candidate invited him. Instead, aides to the former president simply informed the Senate campaigns that he was coming. […]

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Democrats Buoyed by Abortion and Trump, Times/Siena Poll Finds

Even as they struggle to persuade voters that they should be trusted on the economy, Democrats remain unexpectedly competitive in the battle for Congress as the sprint to November’s midterm election begins, a New York Times/Siena College poll has found. The surprising Democratic strength has been bolstered by falling gas prices and President Biden’s success […]

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Why Is There Still No Strategy to Defeat Donald Trump?

One of the stunning facts of the age is the continued prominence of Donald Trump. His candidates did well in the G.O.P. primaries this year. He won more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. His favorability ratings within his party have been high and basically unchanged since late 2016. In a range of […]

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Giorgia Meloni May Lead Italy, and Europe Is Worried

CAGLIARI, Sardinia — Giorgia Meloni, the hard-right leader of a party descended from post-Fascist roots and the favorite to become Italy’s next prime minister after elections this month, is known for her rhetorical crescendos, thundering timbre and ferocious speeches slamming gay-rights lobbies, European bureaucrats and illegal migrants. But she was suddenly soft-spoken when asked on […]

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The New Covid Boosters Are Amazing News

Many European countries and Canada, for example, did a better job of making sure more of their population got boosters. Their cumulative death and illness tolls from the Omicron wave are sharply lower than those of the United States, where only about a third of eligible adults had gotten boosters, compared with two-thirds of adults […]

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Sweden’s Far Right Just Made History. Is It the Country’s Future?

The final results of Sweden’s elections made history on Wednesday: The Sweden Democrats, an anti-immigrant far-right party with a recent history of overtly Nazi ideology, has won its best result ever. With 20.6 percent of the vote, it is in second place in Sweden’s multiparty system, beating out all of the more mainstream right-wing parties. […]

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Why Things May Really Be Different for This Midterm Election

Just about every election cycle, there’s an argument for why, this time, things might be different — different from expectations based on historical trends and key factors like the state of the economy or the president’s approval rating. The arguments are often pretty plausible. After all, every cycle is different. There’s almost always something unprecedented […]

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Prime Minister Liz Truss’s Dizzying First Week

LONDON — Last Tuesday, Prime Minister Liz Truss was moving into Downing Street and puzzling over how to help people pay their soaring gas bills. Two days later, she stepped out of her new home to pay tribute to a revered queen, Elizabeth II, and tell the country that Britain’s new king would henceforth be […]

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Introducing ‘The Tilt,’ a Newsletter About Elections and Polling

Ahead of the 2020 election, I wrote a daily article on the latest polls — internally, we called it my “polling diary.” To my surprise, tens of thousands of people signed up to be notified whenever we published a new diary entry. You might be one of them! This cycle, we’re taking email all the […]

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Are the Polls Wrong Again?

The unavoidable reality is that polling is both an art and a science, requiring hard judgments about which kinds of people are more or less likely to respond to a survey and more or less likely to vote in the fall. There are still some big mysteries about the polls’ recent tendency to underestimate Republican […]

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Anti-Monarchists Tread Lightly After Queen’s Death, but Their Goal Persists

LONDON — When Queen Elizabeth II died on Thursday, the most prominent anti-monarchist movement in Britain did what it had been planning to do for years upon her death: It lay low. Republic, a group founded in 1983 that campaigns for an elected head of state and wants the monarchy abolished, instead released a short […]

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Democrats’ Black Male Voter Problem

Last month in a videotaped appearance for a “Pod Save America” live show, Stacey Abrams, a celebrated Democratic activist and the Democratic nominee for governor of Georgia, said that Black men have the power to determine the election in that state. After explaining that some Black men chose not to vote because “often the leadership […]

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Chile’s Constitutional Moment Is Not Over

This monthslong campaign to turn down the new Constitution gained a foothold and never slipped. A barrage of misinformation spread through WhatsApp and social media, and outsize political donations and murky spending gave a financial advantage to the rejection campaign, which no doubt had an effect on voters. The effort was brutal, and brutally effective, […]

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Democrats Didn’t Conjure Up the Demand for MAGA Candidates

In my column this week, I tackled some of the major objections to President Biden’s Philadelphia speech on MAGA Republicans and the threat they pose to democracy, including the view that it was too divisive. Even if it was, most Americans land on Biden’s side of the argument — in a Reuters poll conducted just […]

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In Orange County, House Race Tests What Asian Americans Want

WESTMINSTER, Calif. — Dozens of Vietnamese-speaking volunteers filled a community center on a recent Wednesday to phone bank for Representative Michelle Steel, Republican of California, a Korean American lawmaker whose campaign signs and fliers in Vietnamese and English lined the walls. A few neighborhoods down, Jay Chen, a Democrat and Navy reservist of Taiwanese descent […]

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Charles Ascends to a Role He Has Prepared for All His Life: King

LONDON — Never, perhaps, has an heir been more ready for the crown. Charles, the eldest son of Queen Elizabeth II and a man born to be king, acceded to the throne on Thursday after being the designated successor for longer than anyone in the history of the British monarchy. In those seven decades, Charles […]

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4 Types of Voters We’re Watching in the Midterms

Today’s newsletter is a guest piece from Astead Herndon, a reporter for The New York Times who is hosting our political podcast The Run-Up, which returned this week. Listen to the first episode here. You can follow The Run-Up on platforms including Apple, Spotify, Google, Stitcher and Amazon Music. Voters in both parties think the […]

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Trump Couldn’t Have Done What He Did Without States Leading the Way

Grumbach argued that their divergent perspectives grew out of different approaches to assessing “policy responsiveness to public opinion.” One measure, Grumbach wrote, is what he calls “cross-sectional responsiveness”: In a snapshot in time, do more conservative places have conservative policies and vice versa? On this score, things look good. Cross-sectional responsiveness is stronger now than […]

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Is the Democratic Midterm Surge Overrated? Why Republicans Can Still Win the House and Senate.

Ross Douthat, a Times Opinion columnist, hosted an online conversation with Kristen Soltis Anderson, a Republican pollster, and the conservative writer and radio host Erick Erickson, to discuss whether Republicans are blowing the fall campaign — or whether a red wave is still possible. Ross Douthat: Kristen, Erick, thanks so much for joining me. Let’s […]

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The Run-Up: The Stakes of the 2022 Midterm Elections

This transcript was created using speech recognition software. While it has been reviewed by human transcribers, it may contain errors. Please review the episode audio before quoting from this transcript and email transcripts@nytimes.com with any questions. [PHONE INTERNAL RINGING] belinda Hello? astead herndon Hi, my name’s Astead Herndon. I’m a politics reporter at “The New […]

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A Good Issue for Democrats

The partisan divide in Covid attitudes has been so large that you might think Americans would be split roughly down the middle about which of the two political parties had handled the pandemic better. But that’s not the case. Americans give the Democrats significantly higher marks, according to The Times’s latest Covid poll, which was […]

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With Voters From Both Parties Energized, Campaigns Begin Fall Sprint

For two decades, midterm elections have served as a vehicle for voter discontent, a chance for Americans to punish the president, shake up a statehouse and express their anger with the party in power by costing them congressional seats and governor’s mansions. This year, though, the dissatisfaction has intensified and become something like a national […]

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