Tag: Polls and Public Opinion

Trump’s Electoral College Edge Could Grow in 2020, Rewarding Polarizing Campaign

President Trump’s approval ratings are under water in national polls. His position for re-election, on the other hand, might not be quite so bleak. His advantage in the Electoral College, relative to the national popular vote, may be even larger than it was in 2016, according to an Upshot analysis of election results and polling […]

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Get It Together, Democrats

This article is part of David Leonhardt’s newsletter. You can sign up here to receive it each weekday. The Democratic Party is having a rough summer so far: Congressional Democrats have a weak, confusing message about Robert Mueller’s findings. Congressional Republicans outfoxed Democrats on a border funding bill. Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the House, […]

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Huge Turnout Is Expected in 2020. So Which Party Would Benefit?

The 2020 presidential election is poised to have the highest turnout in a century, with the potential to reshape the composition of the electorate in a decisive way. But perhaps surprisingly, it is not obvious which party would benefit. There are opportunities and risks for both parties, based on an Upshot analysis of voter registration […]

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Saving Bernie Sanders

We’re only two debates-and-their-aftermaths deep into the Democratic primary campaign, and already one of my 2020 scenarios is looking wobbly. This spring I prophesied that Bernie Sanders had a chance of imitating Ronald Reagan’s leap between 1976 and 1980 — in which a former insurgent dismissed as too old and too ideological became a nominee […]

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Politicians Don’t Actually Care What Voters Want

We like to think that politicians care about what their constituents want. If voters in a legislative district have certain views about, say, the legality of abortion, we assume that their representative’s decisions will be shaped, or at least influenced, by those views. To a large extent, democracy depends on this assumption: The beliefs of […]

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Aid in Dying Soon Will be Available to More Americans. Few Will Choose It.

ImageCreditJames Steinberg On Aug. 1, New Jersey will become the eighth state to allow doctors to prescribe lethal medication to terminally ill patients who want to end their lives. On Sept. 15, Maine will become the ninth. So by October, 22 percent of Americans will live in places where residents with six months or less […]

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West Bank Grows Calmer as Pocketbook Issues Take Priority Over Protests

BILIN, West Bank — On a recent weekday, Muhammad Abu Rahma returned to the place where Palestinian protesters and Israeli soldiers used to clash in weekly confrontations that made the West Bank village of Bilin a symbol of resistance against the Israeli occupation. But this time, he came not to protest but to picnic with […]

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Why Isn’t Trump Trying to Win the Center?

What is President Trump going to do to win the voters who rejected him in 2016? It’s a serious question. Roughly 137 million people voted in the last presidential election. Most of them — about 74 million people, or 54 percent of all ballots cast — did not vote for Trump. His self-proclaimed “massive landslide” […]

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The Bro-iness of Joe Biden

Joe Biden has a 1960s T.V. dad quality that can sometimes be charming and nostalgia-provoking, but is just as often problematic and cringe-inducing. He is a man of a particular time whose evolution seems to be slowing. I don’t believe he’s a bad person, or a racist, or a segregationist. That’s ridiculous. I just believe […]

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Momentum for Harris, Big Haul for Buttigieg: This Week in the 2020 Race

Every Saturday morning, we’re publishing “This Week in the 2020 Race”: a quick way to catch up on the presidential campaign and the field of 24 candidates for the Democratic nomination. Here’s our latest edition: Harris gets a bump from the debates An immediate consensus emerged among pundits and the political class after the first […]

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Will Gen-Z Save the World?

There is some sort of hard-to-define spiritual crisis across the land, which shows up in rising depression rates, rising mental health problems. A survey that the Pew Research Center released late last year captures the mood. Pew asked people to describe the things that bring meaning to their lives. A shocking number of respondents described […]

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Belief in Bootstraps Is Strongest Where Pulling Up Is Toughest

HUNTSVILLE, Ala. — A widening income gap and sagging social mobility have left dents in the American dream. But the belief that anyone with enough gumption and grit can clamber to the top remains central to the nation’s self-image. And that could complicate Democratic efforts to frame the 2020 presidential election as a referendum on […]

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Is Biden Doomed?

Listen and subscribe to our podcast from your mobile device: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Play | RadioPublic | Stitcher Was Kamala Harris’s debate-stage takedown the beginning of the end for Joe Biden’s front-runner status? This week on “The Argument,” the columnists take stock of the 2020 Democratic primary so far. Biden’s shakiness on […]

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No One Picks Up the Phone, but Which Online Polls Are the Answer?

The transition away from live interview telephone polling is well underway, and online polls now make up the principal source of data on national public opinion. But the alternatives to traditional polling are not fully mature, and the absence of a clear set of standards for online polling research has opened the floodgates to unproven […]

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It’s a Question No One Says They Want to Ask. But the Women Running for President Keep Hearing It.

GREENVILLE, S.C. — Some people whisper it, some apologize for it, and some are very careful to mention their neighbors — their neighbors would be the ones to ask. “Do you really think a woman could be elected president?” In ways subtle and overt, Democrats keep hearing that same question, even days after debates where […]

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Kamala Harris Surges in 3 Polls After Strong Debate Performance

After a strong performance in her first Democratic presidential debate, Senator Kamala Harris of California saw a significant increase in support in three polls released this week, as she and the rest of the Democratic primary field cut into the lead that former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. has enjoyed since entering the 2020 […]

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The Vulnerability of Biden (and Bernie)

This article is part of David Leonhardt’s newsletter. You can sign up here to receive it each weekday. People who give money to presidential candidates typically spend more time following campaigns than average voters do. Many campaign donors — including those who give small amounts — read policy proposals, watch debates and listen to candidate […]

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A Hong Kong Protester’s Tactic: Get the Police to Hit You

ImagePolice faced off with protesters on the Victoria Harbor waterfront in Hong Kong on Saturday.CreditChan Long Hei/EPA, via Shutterstock HONG KONG — I am one of the Hong Kong protesters. I took part in the two mass marches earlier this month, the June 12 protest that turned violent and the blockade of police headquarters on […]

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Dems, Please Don’t Drive Me Away

I could never in a million years vote for Donald Trump. So my question to Democrats is: Will there be a candidate I can vote for? According to a recent Gallup poll, 35 percent of Americans call themselves conservative, 35 percent call themselves moderate and 26 percent call themselves liberal. The candidates at the debates […]

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One-on-One With Cory Booker

Listen and subscribe to our podcast from your mobile device: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Play | RadioPublic | Stitcher Cory Booker has executive experience, bipartisan bona fides and a raft of ambitious policy goals. So why is the New Jersey senator running in the middle of the 2020 Democratic pack — and how […]

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