The markets are mercurial but their tone has thoroughly changed — from the sky-is-the-limit bullishness that dominated only a month ago to a mood of heightened uncertainty and measured self-restraint. Big shifts have taken place this month. Bonds have taken a beating but are becoming increasingly attractive. Stocks are no longer rocketing straight to the […]
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Stocks are on course for their longest losing streak of the year, as geopolitical turmoil rattles Wall Street and investors slash their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates any time soon. The S&P 500, one of the most widely followed stock indexes in the world, recorded a fifth consecutive decline on Thursday. Stocks […]
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Consumer prices in Britain rose at the slowest rate in two and a half years, the country’s Office for National Statistics reported on Wednesday. Inflation was 3.2 percent in the year through March, down from 3.4 percent in February but a touch higher than the 3.1 percent economists expected, a sign that the path to […]
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The Federal Reserve is likely to wait longer than initially expected to cut interest rates given stubborn inflation readings in recent months, the central bank’s top two officials said Tuesday. Policymakers came into 2024 looking for evidence that inflation was continuing to cool rapidly, as it did late last year. Instead, progress on inflation has […]
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The global economy is approaching a soft landing after several years of geopolitical and economic turmoil, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday. But it warned that risks remain, including stubborn inflation, the threat of escalating global conflicts and rising protectionism. In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the I.M.F. projected global output to hold […]
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An uneasy calm Investors are breathing a sigh of relief on Monday. Global stocks are in the green and oil prices have retreated from last week’s gains after Iran’s unprecedented drone and missile attack on Israel was mostly neutralized in the skies. But the calm could be short lived, as world leaders and markets focus […]
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In western Pennsylvania, halfway through one of those classic hazy March days when the worst of winter has passed, but the bare trees tilting in the wind tell everyone spring is yet to come, Darren Mattern was putting in some extra work. Tucked at a corner table inside a Barnes & Noble cafe in Logan […]
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The path to a “soft landing” doesn’t seem as smooth as it did four months ago. But the expectations of a year ago have been surpassed. April 13, 2024 The economic news of the past two weeks has been enough to leave even seasoned observers feeling whipsawed. The unemployment rate fell. Inflation rose. The stock […]
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Stocks slumped to a second consecutive weekly loss on Friday, as intensifying tension in the Middle East prompted caution among investors, adding to concerns about lingering inflation that had set off a retreat earlier in the week. The S&P 500 fell 1.5 percent on Friday in its worst day of trading since January, and ended […]
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The markets assume that former President Donald J. Trump has an even chance of winning the November election. So far, it appears they don’t care either way. The political prediction markets — which allow traders to place bets on the outcome of the November election — show that the presidential race is tight. After trailing […]
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Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, on Friday warned of an “unsettling” global landscape, highlighting a cascade of pressures including war, rising geopolitical tensions and inflation that threaten the economy and could weigh on the performance of the nation’s largest bank. Mr. Dimon’s remarks, made concurrently with his bank’s quarterly earnings report — […]
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Housing gloom The higher-for-longer inflation predicament has hit the U.S. housing market like a thunderbolt. Home prices and mortgage rates are climbing again, dashing hopes that financing costs would fall this year and adding another economic question that could hang over the presidential election campaign. More economists are paring their bets that the Fed will […]
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The European Central Bank held interest rates steady on Thursday, keeping the deposit rate at 4 percent, the highest in central bank’s history. It was the fifth consecutive decision to leave rates untouched as inflation closes in on the central bank’s 2 percent target. Last month, inflation in the eurozone slowed to 2.4 percent. But […]
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Katie Rogers is a White House correspondent. For much of the past decade, she has focused on features about the presidency, the first family, and life in Washington, in addition to covering a range of domestic and foreign policy issues. She is the author of a book on first ladies. More about Katie Rogers
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America seemed headed for an economic fairy-tale ending in late 2023. The painfully rapid inflation that had kicked off in 2021 appeared to be cooling in earnest, and economic growth had begun to gradually moderate after a series of Federal Reserve interest rate increases. But 2024 has brought a spate of surprises: The economy is […]
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A closely watched measure of inflation remained stronger than expected in March, worrying news for Federal Reserve officials who have become increasingly concerned that their progress on lowering price increases might be stalling. The surprisingly stubborn inflation reading raised doubts among economists about when — and even whether — the Fed will be able to […]
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Wall Street was rattled by signs of stubborn inflation on Wednesday, with stock prices sliding and government bond yields, which underpin interest rates throughout the economy, jolting higher. The S&P 500 fell over 1 percent for the second time this month and only the fifth time this year. Other major indexes, including the tech-heavy Nasdaq […]
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The unexpected re-acceleration in price growth across the economy is at least a temporary setback for President Biden, who has been banking on cooling inflation to lift his re-election prospects. Mr. Biden and his aides have publicly cheered the retreat of annual inflation rates over the last year, after watching the fastest price growth in […]
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Oil prices have climbed in recent weeks, spurred by concerns over supplies and geopolitical risks, including wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Analysts say the momentum could carry prices higher. The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, has risen more than 20 percent since mid-December. It has jumped more […]
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What next on inflation and rate cuts? The mood music on rate cuts has changed again. Inflation hasn’t fallen as quickly as expected and the economy is performing strongly. All eyes now are focused on the upcoming Consumer Price Index data for clues on when the Fed might finally start cutting interest rates. Friday’s blowout […]
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Investors were betting big on Federal Reserve rate cuts at the start of 2024, wagering that central bankers would lower interest rates to around 4 percent by the end of the year. But after months of stubborn inflation and strong economic growth, the outlook is starting to look much less dramatic. Market pricing now suggests […]
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When it comes to economic news, we’ve had so much winning that we’ve gotten tired of winning, or at any rate blasé about it. Last week, we got another terrific employment report — job growth for 39 straight months — and it feels as if hardly anyone noticed. In particular, it’s not clear whether the […]
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics shared more information about inflation with Wall Street “super users” than previously disclosed, emails from the agency show. The revelation is likely to prompt further scrutiny of the way the government shares economic data at a time when such information keenly interests investors. An economist at the agency set off […]
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Another month, another burst of better-than-expected job gains. Employers added 303,000 jobs in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department reported on Friday, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent, from 3.9 percent in February. Expectations of a recession among experts, once widespread, are now increasingly rare. It was the 39th straight […]
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Oil spike ripples through global markets The price of Brent crude rose again on Friday, at one point topping $91 a barrel. Growing tensions in the Middle East have pushed the global benchmark to levels last reached in October. That poses a potential problem for President Biden ahead of the election and raises new questions […]
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It’s been a splendid run for the market — so emphatically great that in just the first three months of the year, the S&P 500 climbed to record highs on 22 separate days. Most people who have looked at their stock portfolios this year have had the pleasant experience of seeing increases in their holdings, […]
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The annual inflation rate across most economies in Europe eased for the third month in a row, nearing the target set by the European Central Bank. Consumer prices in the 20 countries that use the euro rose 2.4 percent in the year through March, down from 2.6 percent the month before, the European Union reported […]
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I, too, know that flash of resentment when grocery store prices feel like they don’t make sense. I hate the fact that a small treat now feels less like an earned indulgence and more like financial folly. And I’m concerned about my kids now that house prices look like telephone numbers. But I breathe through […]
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Last May, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey handily secured another term as head of state, shattering the morale of the political opposition and raising fears among his critics that his hold on the government would enable him to further edge Turkey toward autocracy. This weekend, the opposition struck back. Mr. Erdogan’s opponents secured a […]
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In the years before war and hunger upended daily life in Yemen, Mohammed Abdullah Yousef used to sit down after a long day of fasting during Ramadan to a rich spread of food. His family would dine on meat, falafel, beans, savory fried pastries and occasionally store-bought crème caramel. This year, the Islamic holy month […]
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