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Last updated: Wednesday, February 25 at 11:30 p.m. ET.

⛳ Cognizant Classic: Key takeaways

• Best early bet: Nicolai Hojgaard to win (+2500) – Has case to be betting favorite with pair of Top 5s across past three events and elite ball-striking numbers.

• Best early value: Sam Ryder to win (+10000) – Two career Top 10s at PGA National and ranks third in this field in both true strokes gained on approaches and putting in 2026.

• Course: The Champion Course at PGA National Resort has water in play on 15 of 18 holes and is famous for the “Bear Trap” (holes 15-17).

• Weather: Updated forecasts call for periodic rain and potential thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday, although winds aren’t forecasted to be as penalizing (10-15 mph) as of Wednesday.

• Expected cut: Standard PGA Tour rules apply for this full-field event. The Top 65 and ties will advance to the weekend. The cut line has hovered around +1 or +2 historically before dropping to -5 in 2025 due to soft conditions.

Cognizant Classic odds: favorites & full field

The Cognizant Classic runs February 26 to March 1 at the Champion Course. Below are the latest outright odds, followed by the picks and market-by-market best bets we like this week.

Odds as of Wednesday, February 25 at 11:30 p.m. ET.

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Check out the full Cognizant Classic field here.

Best bets card

• Outright: Nicolai Hojgaard (+2500): Has a strong case to be the betting favorite given his elite statistical profile and current form with two Top 5s in past three events.

• Outright: Haotong Li (+4500): Proven worldwide winner has a high-end tee-to-green game and excellent current form.

• Outright: Sam Ryder (+10000): Two career Top 10s at PGA National and ranks third in this field in both true strokes gained on approaches and putting in 2026.

• Outright: Luke Clanton (+12500): Elite ball-striker and two-time PGA Tour runner-up is positioned to excel on home course from longshot territory.

• Top 20: Haotong Li (+175): Four Top 20s across his past six events while gaining true strokes across the board, including ranking seventh in tree-to-green play in this field.

• Top 20: Michael Thorbjornsen (+125): Pair of Top 20s across his past three events and ranked 14th in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 11th on approaches here in 2025.

• Matchup: Shane Lowry Over Ryan Gerard (-105): Lowry has unmatched success at PGA National and has gained true strokes in 12 consecutive events.

• First-round leader: Sam Ryder (+7000): Carded 66 or lower in three of his past eight rounds at PGA National, including an opening-round 64 last year.

* Adam Scott (+2200) was one of my outright bets Monday morning, but he’s withdrawn from the tournament.

Course breakdown: What wins at the Champion Course?

Notorious for being one of the toughest stops on the PGA Tour, the Champion Course requires precision because of its small landing areas and exposure to wind. Water is also in play on 15 of the 18 holes, which means danger lurks on nearly every shot.

The Tom Fazio design is a 7,223-yard Par 71 with three Par 5s, large greens surfaces featuring Tifeagle Bermudagrass, and the highlighted “Bear Trap,” one of the most demanding three-hole stretches on the PGA Tour circuit.

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Talking about the “Bear Trap,” course redesigner Jack Nicklaus said, “It should all be won or lost here. It’s not about length, it’s about precision. It’s about guts. It’s all about what do you have in your chest that you can finish those holes.”

Wet conditions and overseeding the fairways and rough with rye grass helped scoring in 2025 because the track wasn’t as firm or fast.

Still, players rarely have the luxury of having wedges in hand. The most common approach distances are between 125 and 200 yards, with PGA National a true second-shot track. Additionally, players often club down from driver on several tees to leave longer approaches into the large greens.

• Water hazards in play on 15 of 18 holes

• Second-shot course emphasizing precision on approaches

• Notorious “Bear Trap” a true round wrecker

• Large Bermudagrass greens

• Bogey avoidance critical to success

Players to watch

• Shane Lowry: On a 2nd-T5-T4-T11 heater at the Champions Course with true strokes gained on approaches in all four trips.

• Keith Mitchell: The 2019 winner also carded T9 results in 2022 and 2024. He’s also never lost true strokes putting in seven trips to the track.

• Brooks Koepka: Putter has ruined excellent ball-striking in consecutive events, and the Florida native finished T2 here in 2019.

Round 1 hole locations

Key stats & player profiles to target

• True strokes gained tee-to-green

• Bogey avoidance

• Scrambling percentage and true strokes gained around-the-green

• Approaches from 150-175 and 175-200 yards

• Total driving

• Birdie or better percentage

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Players to watch

• Nicolai Hojgaard: Sixth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green across his past six events, while ranking first in bogey avoidance and fifth in adjusting scoring average to start the PGA Tour season.

• Ryan Gerard: Ranks 10th in both bogey avoidance and adjusted scoring average this PGA Tour season, while also pacing this field in true strokes gained total.

Weather update

A front is forecasted to move slowly southward across Florida on Saturday, interacting with upper-level energy passing over the region. The front could bring scattered showers Friday afternoon, with showers and a few thunderstorms becoming more likely Saturday afternoon. It’s forecasted to slowly shift south of the area Sunday, leading to a decrease in shower chances.

Winds are forecasted in the 10-15 mph range and won’t be as penalizing on playing conditions, with the Friday and Saturday forecasts calling for the potential for lighter breezes in the 7-14 mph range.

Outright picks: winners to bet

Pick 1: Nicolai Hojgaard to win (+2500)

Nicolai Hojgaard is sixth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green across his past six tournaments, while ranking first in bogey avoidance and fifth in adjusting scoring average to start the 2026 PGA Tour season.

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• Course Fit: Third trip to the track with a T18 in 2025

• Recent Form: Pair of Top 5s in past three events

• Market Value: Has a case to be the betting favorite

Risk: Still chasing down first PGA Tour win.

Pick 2: Sam Ryder to win (+10000)

Sam Ryder is still searching for his first PGA Tour win, and this watered-down field serves a potential breakout spot given his course history and ranks of third in this field in both true strokes gained on approaches and putting to start the 2026 PGA Tour season

• Course Fit: Pair of Top 10s at PGA National

• Recent Form: Elite approach game and putting hasn’t translated to top finishes

• Market Value: Long odds considering this is a watered-down field

Risk: Ryder has never won on the PGA Tour.

* Adam Scott to win (+2200) was an early pick Monday morning, but he has withdrawn from the tournament.

Best top finishing position bets

Pick 1: Michael Thorbjornsen to finish top 20 (+125)

Michael Thorbjornsen leads the Aon Swing 5 standings and has two Top 20s across his past three events, including his T3 in the WM Phoenix Open. He also ranked 14th in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 11th on approaches during his T39 in the 2025 Cognizant.

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• Market Fit: Fair price for a betting favorite to finish Top 20

• Key Stat: Elite +0.84 true strokes gained across past 20 events

Risk: Thorbjornsen is an inconsistent putter.

Pick 2: Haotong Li to finish top 20 (+175)

Haotong Li is a proven worldwide winner with four Top 20s in his past six events. He’s also gained true strokes across the board during the run, which includes ranking seventh in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green.

• Market Fit: Current form and past wins aren’t priced in correctly

• Key Stat: True strokes gained across the board through past six events

Risk: Will be making his debut at PGA National.

Matchup & head-to-head bets

Pick 1: Shane Lowry over Ryan Gerard (-105)

Hanging with the betting favorites is unfamiliar territory for Ryan Gerard, while Shane Lowry has been front and center on the worldwide stage for over a decade. Additionally, as well as Gerard has played, it’s Lowry pacing this field in true strokes gained with four Top 12 finishes across his past six events.

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• Matchup Advantage: Lowry has unmatched success at PGA Nationa

• Key Stat: Lowry’s gained true strokes on approach in 12 straight events

Risk: Gerard’s career trajectory has skyrocketed the past year.

First-round leader bets

Pick 1: Sam Ryder first-round leader (+7000)

Sam Ryder is out early in Round 1, and he’s fired 66 or lower in three of his past eight rounds at PGA National, including an opening-round 64 last year.

• Market Fit: Ryder is well down the board considering his course history

• Key Stat: Seventh in field in birdie average to start 2026 

Risk: Inconsistent off-the-tee numbers to start the season.

Odds movement & market notes

With the tournament bookended by Signature Events, and three of the top betting favorites withdrawing on Monday, there have been notable moves in the Cognizant odds.

Shane Lowry and Ryan Gerard have the shortest odds to win the tournament at +1600 at BetMGM, following Ben Griffin, Jacob Bridgeman and Adam Scott all withdrawing Monday.

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It’s definitely worth noting a long shot of +10000 odds or higher has also won three of the past four years, and interestingly, defending champion Joe Highsmith opened at +20000 to win and remains at the number as of Wednesday morning through BetMGM.

Early week odds moves:

• Daniel Berger was a late addition to the field and has seen his price drop to +3000

• Johnny Keefer has caught bettors attention and is down to +4000

• Luke Claton calls PGA National his home course and is a popular long shot who’s been bet down down to +11000

How to watch & tee times (quick links)

How to watch:

• Thursday-Friday: 2:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. (Golf Channel)

• Saturday: 1:00 p.m. – 3:00 p.m. (Golf Channel); 3:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)

• Sunday: 1:00 p.m. – 3:00 p.m. (Golf Channel); 3:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)

Tee times:

Nicolai Hojgaard tee times:

• Round 1 – 10th tee at 7:57 a.m. ET

• Round 2 – 1st tee at 12:47 p.m. ET

Haotong Li tee times:

• Round 1 – 1st tee at 12:59 p.m. ET

• Round 2 – 10th tee at 8:09 am. ET

Sam Ryder tee times:

• Round 1 – 10th tee at 6:57 a.m. ET

• Round 2 – 1st tee at 11:47 a.m. ET

Luke Clanton tee times:

• Round 1 – 1st tee at 1:11 p.m. ET

• Round 2 – 10th tee at 8:21 a.m. ET

Featured groups Round 1 tee times:

• Shane Lowry, Billy Horschel and Aaron Rai (10th tee at 7:21 a.m. ET)

• Joe Highsmith, Keith Mitchell and Chris Kirk (10th tee at 7:45 a.m. ET)

• Ryan Gerard, Max Homa and Michael Brennan (1st tee at 12:11 p.m. ET)

• Brooks Koepka, Daniel Berger and Will Zalatoris (1st tee at 12:23 pm. ET)

Cognizant Classic betting FAQ

When is the 2026 Cognizant Classic?

The 2026 edition of the Cognizant Classic is Thursday, February 26, to Sunday, March 1.

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Where is the 2026 Cognizant Classic being played?

The 2026 Cognizant Classic is being played at The PGA National Resort (The Champion Course) in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.

What is the “Florida Swing?”

The Cognizant Classic serves as the traditional opening event and first stop of the “Florida Swing,” a series of tournaments played on the state’s challenging Bermudagrass courses.

Who is the 2026 Cognizant Classic favorite?

After three-time PGA Tour winner Ben Griffin (+1400) withdrew from the tournament on Monday, February 23, the betting favorite to win the 2026 Cognizant Classic is Shane Lowry (+1600).

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What are the most popular bets at the Cognizant Classic?

Brooks Koepka, Shane Lowry and Ryan Gerard have recievied the highest betting handle at BetMGM to win the Cognizant Classic, as of Wednesday.

What are the Cognizant Classic FRL markets?

First Round Leader (FRL) markets center around which player(s) will be in the lead following the first 18 holes of the tournament. 

How do Cognizant Classic matchup bets work?

When betting Cognizant Classic matchups, you’re selecting which golfer will score better between the two players listed in that specific market. There are 18-hole, single-round matchups, in addition to tournament-long, 72-hole matchups.

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What is the Cognizant Classic cut line?

Standard PGA Tour rules apply for this full-field event. The Top 65 and ties will advance to the weekend. The cut line has hovered around +1 or +2 historically before dropping to -5 in 2025 due to soft conditions.

Are Cognizant Classic odds the same across all sportsbooks?

You’ll see slight variations in odds across sportsbooks for the Cognizant Classic; it’s always good practice to check multiple sports betting sites for the best odds.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.