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Is this pervasive sense that we have to win the white guys so deep that the party is informally signaling: if you’re not white-guy-friendly—or really, if you’re not a white guy, [don’t run] in some ways?

Segers: I do think there may be that underlying message. I also think that, for their part, women politicians have seen what happens to women who run. And they’ve seen the way that women candidates are held to a higher level of scrutiny—the way the public just automatically assumes the worst of them. And talk all day about the flawed candidacy of Clinton and Harris and how they should have done X, Y, Z, and how they had all this baggage, and Harris wasn’t running until August and blah, blah, blah.

But when it comes down to it, the first time we saw two major-party nominees that were women, they were run down. I think a lot of women politicians are going to go, Why would I put myself through that? What is the benefit for me when running for president is incredibly hard? It costs a ton of money, and I’m going to be having to fight uphill the entire way.

And then being governor. I think I would never be a politician because it sucks. But if you have to be a politician, being governor is pretty sweet. You are the god-king of your personal fiefdom. And you have this level of power. That’s awesome.

So I never blame members of Congress when they leave to go be a governor. It’s like, yeah, of course you would. But if you’re Gretchen Whitmer, and maybe she doesn’t know what she’s going to do next, that’s when you start thinking about running for president. But, like, if you’ve got a pretty sweet job going on, then why sacrifice that so you can be absolutely battered for six months before losing?

Bacon: Well, that seems true and depressing, but probably true. What do you anticipate for 2026? I anticipate that Trump will get a little more unpopular. There’s probably a floor of 35 percent or so, but I think he’ll get more unpopular.

I think the Democrats will win the House unless the gerrymandering is really changed. The Democrats are big favorites to win the House. North Carolina is the Senate seat they might be very competitive in. I know we always say this, but Roy Cooper actually was the governor. Maine, I don’t know, because I can’t tell if Plattner is going to win the primary.

But I think you’ll see a narrow Senate majority for Democrats. So I think you’re going to see a pretty strong Democratic year, and I think you’re going to see more Republicans on Capitol Hill, governors, and at the state level criticizing Trump. And I think you’re going to see sort of a break from Trump.

Maybe not Bush 2006 levels, but something like this where the party is going to start looking out for itself a little more and Trump a little less. So that’s kind of what I think, but maybe that’s too optimistic. So we’ll see.

Segers: What I’m really interested to see is that we are going to begin to see some of the potential political impact of policy changes. You know, a lot of what passed in the reconciliation law over the summer doesn’t go into effect until after the midterms, and that’s very deliberate.

But we are going to be seeing some immediate impact. So SNAP work requirements are already in. We are seeing the impact if people drop their healthcare because they can’t afford the double or tripled, quadruple ACA marketplace options. What political impact is that going to have? I think that’s going to be a really interesting dynamic going into 2026.

One final thing I’ll say is: If the Supreme Court upholds that Trump can fire members of independent agencies and doesn’t carve out the Fed, and Trump fires Jerome Powell. If that happens, the economy is going to go into free fall. That’s going to be massive. Every single economist that I’ve talked to has told me that is going to be… if that happened, that would be very, very bad.

Bacon: Yeah, I guess I knew that. But I’m glad you sort of reminded me of how important that ruling is going to be.

Segers: I think if I had to guess, I would say the Supreme Court would probably be like, Trump can fire independent agencies—except the Fed; don’t touch the Fed.

That would be my guess. If they are not specific enough on that front, and if his advisers can’t convince him not to fire Jerome Powell, then I think that’ll be a really interesting thing to see.

Bacon: Okay. well thanks for joining me. I’ll end it there.

Segers: Good to see you.