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Four-time French Open champion Iga Swiatek and world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka’s wins on Tuesday at Roland-Garros set up a blockbuster semifinal meeting between them. The pair has contested some incredible matches in the last few years. Their 2024 Madrid Open final, won by Swiatek on a deciding set tiebreak, was one of the best WTA contests ever. Even more will be on the line when they meet in Paris on Thursday. The final result of their French Open semifinal could leave a lasting impact on both women. It may even be the most important match of their careers.

Why the French Open Semifinal is so Crucial for Swiatek

1. Swiatek Could Lose her Fear Factor

The Pole has endured a challenging time since winning last year’s French Open. No one predicted that Swiatek would fail to reach another final in the nearly 12 months that have followed. Although facing setbacks on hard and grass courts was disappointing, losses on clay feel different because of how much she has dominated on the surface. Before this season, Swiatek had won four of the last five French Opens and three of the last four Italian Opens.

Danielle Collins beating the 24-year-old at this year’s Italian Open caused a significant stir in the tennis world. That would be heightened if Swiatek fails to reach the 2025 final at the French Open. It might leave a lasting impression on her and embolden other players on the WTA Tour, many of whom have looked beaten before the start against Swiatek, especially on clay.

2. Beating the World No. 1 Would Send a Statement After Falling in the Rankings

Swiatek dominated the No. 1 ranking for a few years until the closing stages of the 2024 season. Since reaching that position for the first time in April 2022, the five-time Grand Slam champion has accumulated 125 weeks at the summit of the rankings. That puts her 7th on the all-time list, an incredible achievement for someone of her age. Sabalenka overtook Swiatek in October of last year and has retained the spot since with several excellent results.

By contrast, Swiatek slipped to No. 5, her lowest ranking in over three years, before the French Open. She would be guaranteed to fall to No. 7 with a defeat against Sabalenka. The 2022 US Open champion had a notable victory in the fourth round from 1-6 0-2 against Elena Rybakina. However, overcoming the best player in the world during the last 12 months would send an important statement to other WTA players near the top.

3. Reaching the Final Would Allow Swiatek to put off-court Issues Fully Behind Her

Some feel that Swiatek’s decline in results is partially due to her anxiety-inducing doping saga. In August of last year, the former world No. 1 tested positive for trimetazidine after melatonin tablets she purchased were contaminated without her knowledge. Swiatek managed to prove what had happened and was only banned for a month, most of which she had already served provisionally.

Thankfully, Swiatek avoided what would undoubtedly have been a lengthier suspension if she had not proven the melatonin tablets were contaminated. Nonetheless, the Pole still gets asked about it and does not hide the toll it took on her. Beating Sabalenka and reaching another final at Roland-Garros drought might feel like the first step into a new era and allow her to draw a line under the past.

Why the French Open Final is so Crucial for Sabalenka

1. Sabalenka has Never Reached a Grand Slam Final Outside of Hard Courts

Sabalenka has dominated on hard courts since the start of 2023. The last five Grand Slam finals on the surface involved her, and she won three of them. She is a former semifinalist at the French Open and Wimbledon, but has yet to make the final at either tournament. Achieving that is the next step towards Sabalenka becoming one of the greatest women’s players in tennis history.

Although Majors are the most critical events, Sabalenka’s record outside them is also notable. Her only WTA titles on clay at any level have come in Madrid (where the conditions are faster than in other clay tournaments), and she has not won a title on grass. Beating the dominant clay court player of the last few years would remove any doubts about Sabalenka outside of hard courts.

2. It Would be Sabalenka’s First Clay-Court Victory Against Swiatek Outside of Madrid

As mentioned above, Sabalenka thrives in the speedier conditions in Madrid. She defeated Swiatek there in 2023 and came within a point of doing so again last year. By contrast, the Belarusian has not won a set in their other four clay-court meetings in Stuttgart and Rome. They have never previously played at the French Open. However, the clay in Rome is much more similar to the courts at Roland-Garros than those in Madrid.

Overcoming Swiatek on Thursday might impact Sabalenka more than any other victory in her career. She would enter their future clay-court matches with the knowledge that she has what it takes to beat Swiatek. Any mental block that exists from not winning a set in Rome and Stuttgart would be removed.

3. Sabalenka can Banish her Painful Recent History at the French Open

In 2023, Sabalenka lost one of the most epic women’s French Open semifinals ever to Karolina Muchova. After missing several chances, she fell 6-7 7-6 5-7. After getting to the quarterfinals, the two-time Australian Open champion was also the favorite to reach the final in her side of the draw last year. Unfortunately, Sabalenka was hampered by an illness during her 7-6 4-6 4-6 defeat to Mirra Andreeva.

Losing a second semifinal after what happened the previous two years would be tough for Sabalenka to take. She can avoid feeling cursed at the French Open and at the two majors outside of clay by triumphing against Swiatek in Paris. Whoever wins will face WTA Finals champion Coco Gauff or home hero Lois Boisson in the final.