After a tantalizing rookie year in which Dontayvion Wicks flashed some extremely high level wide receiver play, he came back down to earth in 2024, struggling to have the same impact on the Green Bay Packers offense.
With two years of data to draw from, here is what the numbers say about Wicks’ overall profile after two seasons:
Strengths
Due to the Jekyll and Hyde nature of his first two years in the NFL, it is necessary to split Wicks’ strengths into two separate categories: the aspects he has been consistently strong, and the ones he excelled at in 2023, before his steep falloff last season.
There are much more of the latter than the former, but there are a few areas where Wicks has been consistently strong across both years.
This is not the flashiest place to start, but Wicks has been one of the best run blocking wide receivers in the NFL in his short career so far, ranking in the 92nd percentile for run block grade among qualified receivers since 2023.
Despite not being a burner, Wicks’ combination of agility and explosiveness makes him slippery and a real threat to break tackles. He ranks in the 89th percentile for missed tackles forced per reception.
Wicks has also done a good job of putting the ball in the end zone. With five touchdowns in each of his first two seasons, he ranks in the 76th percentile for touchdowns per target.
There are a whole host of facets Wicks showed the ability to perform at a high level as a rookie, but had far less success in 2024.
On the face of it, his production did not dip in a disastrous way. Wicks had 41 receptions and five scores in both his rookie and sophomore seasons, with his yardage total dropping from 605 yards to 454.
However, his slightly lower 2024 production came on 19 more targets than he received as a rookie, and this is where the problem lies.
Wicks was a much more efficient target in 2023, with yards per reception (Y/REC) and yards per route run (Y/RR) numbers which ranked in the 75th and 71st percentile respectively compared to his fellow NFL receivers. In 2024, these marks fell all the way to the 24th and 38th percentile.
His ability to force missed tackles was paired with a strong yards after catch per reception (YAC/REC) ranking in the 72rd percentile in 2023, but he only ranked in the 41st percentile for generating YAC in 2024.
As a rookie, Wicks was fantastic in the short and intermediate areas of the field, ranking in the 91st and 85th percentile for Y/REC and Y/RR in the 0-10 yard range, and the 77th and 72nd percentile between 10 and 19 yards downfield.
All of these numbers declined in 2024, many of them heavily.
He made the most of his short and intermediate receptions in terms of creating yards after the catch in 2023, ranking in the 89th and 72nd percentile for YAC/REC respectively in 2023.
Wicks has done his best work against zone coverage, and this was especially the case in his rookie year, when he ranked in the 86th percentile for Y/REC and the 79th for Y/RR. He was still above average in both metrics in 2024, but did not have the same level of success.
He was also a real threat from the slot, landing in the 89th percentile for Y/REC and the 87th for Y/RR. In 2024, he dropped to the 28th and 20th percentile respectively, a massive dropoff.
Weaknesses
The flipside of Wicks’ inconsistency in many elements of receiver play is that there are few areas he has been truly bad in both of his first two seasons.
It is no surprise to see drops as the most prominent issue with Wicks’ game to date.
He actually ranked in the 63rd percentile in drop rate as a rookie, comfortably above average, but he dropped passes at the highest rate of any receiver in the league a year ago, bringing his overall ranking down to the 31st percentile.
Disappointingly for a player of his size, Wicks has not fared well in contested catch situations, hauling in just seven of his 23 opportunities and ranking in the 31st percentile for contested catch win rate among qualified receivers.
Wicks ran a 4.62 at the scouting combine, so perhaps it should not be a shock that he has not been much of a deep threat in the NFL. He ranks in the 16th percentile for Y/REC and the 38th for Y/RR to the deep part of the field.
Interestingly, his average depth of target (ADOT) went up significantly in 2024, meaning he was being targeted further downfield on average. This does not appear to align with his strengths, and could have been a factor in his more pedestrian play.
Not unlike other receivers on the Packers roster, Wicks has not been able to consistently beat man coverage at the NFL level.
He was just above average in Y/REC and Y/RR as a rookie, but ranked in the 1st and 17th percentile in 2024. Wicks’ drop issues have been much worse when facing man, ranking in the 4th percentile in drop rate compared to the 54th percentile against zone.
Through two years, Wicks has consistently got himself open and has enticing upside in a variety of areas, but he drops too many passes, and does not make contested catches when he’s covered, which for a 6-1, 206-pound receiver, is not ideal.
He caught the ball more consistently in the back half of 2024, and if he can rebound in that regard, there is a good chance he can hit the extremely high ceiling he showed signs of as a rookie and sustain that level of play.