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What happened

Conservative nationalist Karol Nawrocki won Poland’s presidential runoff election Sunday, according to official results released today. Nawrocki, a 42-year-old historian and amateur boxer aligned with Poland’s former ruling Law and Justice party, beat liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski 50.9% to 49.1%.

Who said what

Nawrocki’s victory “deals a significant blow” to Prime Minister Donald Tusk, whose centrist coalition backed Trzaskowski, Politico said. The “tight result” reflects Poland’s “deep political divisions” — between liberal cities and conservative towns, and backers of the European Union or a nationalist future — though “those splits are nothing new.” Outgoing President Andrzej Duda, an ally of the right-wing Law and Justice party, defeated Trzaskowski 51% to 49% in 2020.

Duda “has no say in setting economic or other policy” but has used his veto power to “stymie” legislation passed by Tusk’s coalition, and there’s “little chance” Nawrocki will “wave through laws” Duda blocked, The New York Times said. Both sides “agree that Poland should provide weapons to Ukraine for its war against Russia and build up its military, but diverge sharply on most domestic issues, including abortion.”

What next?

Nawrocki will take office when Duda’s term ends Aug. 6. With another Law and Justice ally in the presidency, “it appears Tusk will have no way to fulfill” electoral promises to Polish voters and the EU, The Associated Press said. Some observers predict those “unfulfilled promises could make it more difficult for Tusk to continue his term until the next parliamentary election scheduled for late 2027.”