After a week’s wait, the Oklahoma City Thunder have finally learned their Round 1 opponent for the 2025 NBA playoffs. The Memphis Grizzlies blew out the Dallas Mavericks to clinch the eighth seed in the play-in tournament.
The Thunder are fresh off one of the greatest regular-season campaigns in NBA history. They finished with a franchise-best 68-14 record and captured the best point differential ever. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is on his way to winning a probable MVP award.
Meanwhile, the Grizzlies saved their season in an elimination game. They lost the seventh seed with a loss to the Golden State Warriors, but dominated the Mavericks in a 120-106 win to capture the final playoff spot. Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane each scored 20-plus points.
Before the series starts with Game 1 from Paycom Center on Sunday, Thunder Wire will preview the series and break down matchups, X-factors and pencil in a series prediction for the first-round matchup:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s dominance against Grizzlies
Like the rest of the NBA, the Grizzlies had no answer for Gilgeous-Alexander in their four matchups. He averaged 36.3 points on 53.7% shooting and 7.3 assists. Even for his standards, those are unreal numbers. Considering Memphis’ designated defender Jaylen Wells will be out for the series, that’ll make it an even more difficult task to slow him down.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s playoff debut last season as the top option went about as well as expected. He averaged 30.2 points on 49.6% shooting. He attempted 8.1 free-throw attempts. Any myths that his whistle will suddenly dry up in the playoffs can be easily dispelled.
While Gilgeous-Alexander has entered the elite status of being a guy who will get his, the Grizzlies are one of the easier matchups on the playoff spectrum. Not only should he average over 30 points, but he should do so on his historic efficiency. Memphis doesn’t possess the personnel to slow the drive-heavy scorer.
The Holmgren-Hartenstein lineup
The Thunder will utilize the Holmgren-Hartenstein lineup against opponents that best fit against it. They spent the final one-third of the regular season logging in as many minutes as possible to catch up on lost time, as both suffered long-term injuries throughout the year. The final result was a 13.5 net rating in 316 minutes. Not bad.
Against the Grizzlies, expect the Thunder to lean into Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Edey are the perfect frontcourt duo to use against. Holmgren can match up well against Jackson Jr. in the perimeter and Hartenstein can neutralize Edey’s size and advantage he brings Memphis on the boards.
The Thunder added Hartenstein to give them at least one high-end center on the floor at all times. That was one of the big reasons they lost to the Mavericks in the playoffs last season. They bled points when Holmgren was off the floor. Going against Jackson Jr. and Edey is the perfect duo to face off in their playoff debut.
Jalen Williams’ bench unit
If the Thunder go deep in the playoffs, it’ll be because they survived Gilgeous-Alexander’s absence. His on-off splits showed that he turns them from a good squad to an all-time team. When on, the Thunder had one of the best offenses. When off, they struggled with consistency. Jalen Williams could be the solution to that.
The good thing about the playoffs is that Gilgeous-Alexander should average around 40 minutes. That means Williams will only need to be the true top scorer for around eight minutes. Honestly, all he needs to do is keep OKC afloat in that span. Against the Grizzlies, he averaged 19.8 points on 49.2% shooting. Those were around his season averages.
The Thunder will rely on Williams to lead their bench lineups. Pair him with Hartenstein, they should be able to generate enough buckets through a motion offense where the role players get plenty of quality looks from deep and off cuts to the basket.
How the Thunder limits Ja Morant
Since the Grizzlies fired Taylor Jenkins, Morant has enjoyed a higher usage rate. That’s a pivot from how they handled most of the season where he was more of a complementary piece in an offense that didn’t have a true top scorer. That said, if the Thunder can limit him, that’ll have a trickle-down effect on the rest of their roster.
Morant had struggled in two games against the Thunder. He averaged 20 points on 34.1% shooting. They dared him to beat them with his jumper. The bet paid off both times. He shot 30.8% from 3 on 6.5 attempts. You can’t overreact to a small sample size, but the game plan is there for OKC to use to limit the drive-heavy scorer.
The Thunder are best equipped to shut down perimeter scorers like Morant. Lu Dort will get the first crack at it. Then Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso will come off the bench and make sure he doesn’t dominate the second-unit minutes. That three-headed defensive monster is enough to limit any scoring explosions from the Grizzlies’ franchise player.
Mark Daigneault against Tuomas Iisalo
To show how high the turnover rate in the coaching business is, Mark Daigneault will enter his third playoff series as the veteran coach. The reigning Coach of the Year is the seventh-longest tenured NBA coach. He climbed over Jenkins when he was shockingly fired three weeks ago.
The Grizzlies gave the keys to Toumas Iisalo. After being a European head coach, he joined their coaching staff this season as an assistant. Memphis apparently liked him enough to boldly fire Jenkins and give him the final three weeks to audition for the head coach gig. The results have been mixed with a 5-6 record.
A boneheaded five-second violation against the Warriors showed Iisalo’s inexperience. The lights will only get brighter from here on out. For the first time ever, Daigneault will get a chance to lean on experience in this playoff series after going from an unknown to a household name.
X-factor: Alex Caruso
This is it. The Thunder brought Caruso for the playoffs. Some guys are labeled as 16-game players instead of 82-game players. The 31-year-old fits that textbook definition. As the regular season entered its final weeks, he ramped up his playing time and had his best stretch of basketball on both ends of the floor.
There will be a stretch this playoff series where Caruso breaks up three Memphis possessions in a row with turnovers. The Thunder will then score on the fast break. The OKC crowd will break all the sound barriers in that stretch and could overwhelm Memphis.
Caruso’s defense alone will be worth his minutes. Expect him to be a top-six rotation player who could be in closing lineups depending on how the game shakes out. Throw in his improved outside shooting as the season progressed, and he’ll be a real weapon for OKC and is the ultimate X-factor.
Series prediction
Regardless of who advanced from the play-in tournament, the Thunder would be heavily favored to win any Round 1 series. While the Grizzlies might be better than your average eighth seed as they let go of the rope in the final couple of weeks in the regular season, the Thunder are better than most first seeds in NBA history.
The Thunder have had the Grizzlies’ number for multiple seasons now. They’ve won nine in a row against the franchise. Both of Memphis’ home games against OKC this season were hyped up as possible statement games. They fell flat on their face in both matchups en route to a lopsided score.
The Grizzlies might get a game. But just because it’s nearly impossible to beat the same team eight times in a row within the same season. Make no mistake about it, the Thunder are the clear-cut better squad and should make easy work of a dysfunctional team that fired their head coach as a last-ditch effort to save their season.
Prediction: Thunder in 4