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7 min Pre-match, I wondered if Brighton might dominate the ball but so far it’s Villa knocking it about. But as I type, Adingra dips inside his man, takes the ball away from Luiz, and wallops a shot from 20 yards … that Olsen turns around the post.

6 min Rogers looks lively, dropping off, finding space, and taking a fine pass into feet from McGinn, finding Diaby outside him; his low cross-shot is held by Verburggen at the second attempt.

4 min Brighton race straight down the other end and Adingra shows his pace down the left, shooting for Olsen to save.

2 min Douglas Luiz drives through midfield and he’s one of various players in this Villa side who looks ready for a Champions League step-up. He moves the ball outside to Diaby who finds Rogers, and Buonanotte clumsily barges him over; he might’ve got a bit of the ball, though, so no penalty says both ref and VAR.

1 min Away we go!

“Emery’s done way better than De Zerbi but there is like zero talk of him going anywhere,” writes Karen Asad. “De Zerbi on the other hand… Is it because of Villa’s new-found status of a quasi-big club or of an acceptance that Emery won’t work in a so-called big job?”

Weren’t Bayern interested in Emery? I’m not sure if minds have been made up on him, but I’d expect him to get another chance somewhere richer should he want one Taking over from Arséne Wenger at Arsenal, and inheriting the mess he did, is not conclusive evidence that he can’t do it in such circumstances.

Email! “Worth remembering,” says Colin McGurn, that “Villa have Tyrone Mings, Emi Buendía, Jacob Ramsey, Boubacar Kamara and Alex Moreno to come back from Injury and signed right back Kosta Nedeljkovic from Red Star Belgrade in January. Still need back up to Watkins, but more likely looking for starters than squad players in summer.”

So which current first-teamers are at risk?

And here come our teams…

Waiting for any Villa slip-up are Spurs. Don’t laugh, mate! As it goes, I think of the Lillywhites as I do Liverpool, a team who took a lot longer to regress to the mean that they might’ve done, but whose results have finally caught up with their performances. I’d be staggered if they were able to capitalise should things go wrong for the Villans.

Villa, meanwhile, will look to get the ball forward a bit quicker and will target Brighton in wide areas. But McGinn and Luiz will also look to break into the box and pick up bits and pieces, while Diaby and Bailey, with licence to express themselves, will swap about to pull defenders out of position.

Where is the game? Brighton will, I think, look to build patiently through midfield, playing off Welbeck and also looking for him in the box, with Pedro and Adingra looking to support. I imagine they’ll looking to cut in, with the full-backs supplying width to stretch Villa’s midfield across the pitch.

I’m really looking forward to seeing how Morgan Rogers does today. He’s got so much invention and potential, but even so, credit to Emery for integrating and trusting him; his success and that of Adam Wharton at Palace testify to the quality of the Championship.

Roberto De Zerbi speaks. He says playing without important players, especially the full-backs, changes something in build-up and “the last 40 metres”, hence the lack of goals and no wins in six. He respects Villa but they want to keep the ball, play football, and take a lot of shots.

So where do Villa – potentially fortified with Champions League money – need to strengthen this summer? A deputy for Ollie Watkins, perhaps, a right-back, and central-midfield competition for Douglas Luii, John McGinn and Youri Tielemans? Real talk, they’re pretty well covered, and I think they can do something in Big Ears next season.

Also going on:

Earlier this season:

Villa, of course, lost 4-2 at home to Olympiakos in midweek. It might take them a while to run out of their legs what was a tense and demanding match, and also on their collective mind will be Thursday’s return. They’ll hope to have Martínez, at least, back for that, especially given the prospect of penalties.

Martínez is a massive miss for Villa. Whatever you think about his performative attitude, he makes crucial saves and few mistakes; Arsenal let him go, but arguably he’s better than both Aaron Ramsdale and David Raya. Brighton will want to test Olsen early and keep him under pressure thereafter, if they possibly can.

As for Villa, Emi Martínez remains injured, Robin Olsen replacing him, while in front, Pau Torres and Diego Carlos replace Matty Cash and Clement Lenglet.

Three changes for Brighton. At the back, Adam Webster and Joel Veltman are replaced by Odeluga Offiah and Valentin Baroco, while up front it’s Daniel Welbeck ahead of Mark O’Mahony.

Brighton (4-2-3-1): Verbruggen; Webster, Dunk, Igor, Veltman; Gilmour, Gross; Adingra, Pedro, Buonanotte; Welbeck. Subs: Steele, Enciso, Moder, Barco, Baleba, Fati, Offiah, Peupion, O’Mahony.

Aston Villa (4-4-2): Olsen; Konsa, Torres, Carlos, Digne; Bailey, Luiz, Rogers, McGinn; Diaby, Watkins. Subs: Gauci, Cash, Moreno, Chambers, Lenglet, Duran, Kesler-Hayden, Iroegbunam, Kellyman.

It’s hard not to look at this match and ponder the managers. Little over a year ago, Roberto De Zerbi was the coming man, arriving to an already decent side and immediately turning it into more, the goals that seemed so hard to find under Graham Potter suddenly arriving more freely, along with some lovely football.

That was then; now, though, not so much. Perhaps Brighton finally fleeced richer rivals to such extent they could no longer simply rebuild and perhaps they didn’t have the squad toi cope with Europe, but also, perhaps opponents have caught on to their press-baiting style, which can be just as tedious to watch as it can be a buzz. So they find themselves 13th in the table – last term they finished sixth – and suddenly De Zerbi is as close to bald fraud as to epochal genius.

Unai Emery, on the other hand, is now utterly ensconced among the elite managers. His travails at PSG and particularly Arsenal, though reasonably attributable to messy circumstances beyond his control, might also be used as evidence he is unsuited to the richest clubs. But at taking mid-ranking clubs to glory seemingly beyond them, he is the best around, and Villa look like another perfect fit.

As such, they need just six points from their final three games to be certain of competing in next season’s Champions League, but with Palace away and Liverpool home to come, those will not be easily achieved. They’ll want to put a dent in things here and now.

Kick-off: 2pm BST