John Swinney and senior Scottish National party deal-makers have scored an initial success in avoiding another bruising leadership contest, which would have been potentially disastrous in a general election year.
But that relief will be short-lived, as the new leader faces a series of immediate practical challenges. Chief among them are convincing voters the party is genuinely focused on their concerns, and rebuilding cross-party trust at Holyrood in minority government.
Polling has consistently suggested the SNP will face heavy losses to the resurgent Scottish Labour party in the general election.
There is also the more existential conundrum of healing fault lines around the divergence of views internally and policy direction that emerged during the contest last March to replace Nicola Sturgeon and which the outgoing leader, Humza Yousaf, ultimately failed to resolve.
What is expected now is a swift and unfussy coronation, with an understandable urgency in steadying the ship in a term packed with bills and with a general election just around the corner.
Swinney is likely to spend the weekend pruning back on policy commitments, in particular those that threaten to reprise the sort of rows seen recently around gender recognition reform or hate crime. Both Swinney and Kate Forbes signalled in their statements today a change of emphasis – Forbes spoke about a “return to governing from the mainstream” while Swinney said the public wanted government from the “moderate centre left”.
But Scottish Greens co-leader Patrick Harvie also made it clear on Thursday that some bitterness remains over the way that Yousaf “threw away” the governing partnership between the two parties and the “progressive, pro-independence” majority it cemented at Holyrood.
Harvie said “the only way to have stability and get a majority across the Scottish parliament … is a progressive, pro-independence government” which would mean accelerating climate action and progressive taxation.
This matters because one of Swinney’s main political challenges is building vote by vote alliances with opposition parties. Now in a minority government, the SNP is two votes short of a majority. That requires him to constantly negotiate with his rivals.
The Scottish Liberal Democrats, the second smallest of Holyrood’s parties, with four seats, have an opportunity to win policy concessions to support the minority SNP, particularly if Swinney pushes for centre ground policies that the Greens will refuse to support.
The Lib Dems identify relaxing restrictive measures on housebuilding pushed through by the Greens co-leader Harvie, when he was housing minister.
Swinney’s greatest challenge overall will be freeing up money for new policies or increased spending in his core areas of health, schools and the economy. The Scottish budget is heavily squeezed, with spending on nearly all non-core areas already being cut.
He made clear on Thursday he is unlikely to lean on the Scottish Conservatives after coming under direct, personal attack by Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross, who implied at Holyrood Swinney had a record of lying about policy.
Swinney said, somewhat sarcastically, he was “slightly pessimistic” about finding common ground with the Tories, and told reporters his emphasis would be on working with Holyrood’s centre-left parties.
It is worth noting the Ipsos polling carried out in the aftermath of Yousaf’s resignation – it found that while SNP voters were most likely to favour Swinney as successor to Yousaf, when the wider public were asked who would make the best first minister Forbes has a six-point lead over Swinney.
Opposition leaders are already sharpening their attack lines – the downside of Swinney’s vast experience in government is that it gives his critics plenty of ammunition, with Ross describing his coronation as “back to the future”, while the Lib Dem’s Alex Cole-Hamilton said the new SNP leader had more baggage than an airport carousel”.