Everton v Nottingham Forest: Premier League – live

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Everton (4-2-3-1): Pickford; Young, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko; Gueye, Gomes, Harrison, Doucoure, McNeil; Calvert-Lewin. Subs: Virginia, Keane, Onana, Danjuma, Beto, Godfrey, Chermiti, Garner, Warrington.

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Nottingham Forest (4-2-3-1): Sels; Williams, Niakhate, Murillo, Aina; Danilo, Dominguez; Reyna, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Wood. Subs: Turner, Sangaré, Toffolo, Elanga, Yates, Origi, Montiel, Omobamidele, Rodrigo Ribeiro.

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Hello and welcome to what Guardian hilarities are calling the Deduction Derby!

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Both Everton and Forest are in all sorts, 16th and 17th respectively and clear of the bottom two only because of the tremendous poverty of Burnley and Sheffield United. But Luton are only two points behind the former and one the latter, so with the gap to Brentford in 15th place now standing at five, one of the three will be relegated.

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But which? Everton were horrendous against Chelsea on Monday night, their performance of such ineptitude that no one could’ve complained if they’d been relegated for it there and then. However the Goodison crowd has saved them in each of the last two seasons and, though their 32 goals in 32 games is the second-worst in the division, their defensive record of 48 conceded is bettered only by the top three, and no one would be surprised if Sean Dyche inspired them to just enough 1-0 home wins to secure their safety.

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Forest, on the other hand, are a different kettle of incompetence. They’ve actually got a fair few decent players, particularly in attack, problem being sorting them out into a team is not easily done. But, though two of their last four games are against Manchester City and Chelsea, the other two are against the aforementioned Sheffield United and Burnley, so even if they lose today, they’ll still have scope to do the necessary.

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Similar, though, is so of Everton, who must face both Liverpool Arsenal, but also have a home encounter with Sheffield United and an away trip to Luton – which might prove definitive. Or, put another way, it’s impossible to predict how this will shake out, which means plenty of fun for those of us with no skin in the game – and, for those who do, the experience of being alive. This is going to be gloriously awful!

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Kick-off: 1.30pm

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Key events

Morgan Gibbs-White, then. I really, really like him – his energy, his engine, his imagination, his attitude; there aren’t many teams in the league who’d not be improved by his presence, and I wonder if he could develop into a proper box-to-boxer, rather than stick as an attacking midfielder.

Email! “Relegation did Manchester United no harm whatsoever,” says Duncan Edwards, “and I suspect – if the club’s finances weren’t in a poor state – that Everton could benefit from going down and popping back up in a much leaner and meaner playing condition. In the meantime, surely they’d benefit from someone persuading Jordan Pickford to wear a kit that fits, instead of the child’s size which I suspect he actually can’t get off.”

That would be a state of affairs. Everton have a new ground to pay for, so can’t really afford to drop down, and they don’t have players you’re certain are good enough to take them straight back up.

Nuno Espirito Santo doesn’t give much away, explaining that Dominguez was the player he thought most suitable for today’s match, but without giving detail as to why. His players are ready, he says.

Where is the game? Forest are poor at defending set-pieces and Everton, James Tarkowski in particular, are good at attacking them. If there’s no plan and even if there is, a narrow home win with the goal coming about in that manner looking not unlikely.

Otherwise, Everton will look to feed Paul Wilkinson Calvert-Lewin with crosses, and ask Abdoulaye Doucoure to hit the box too.

Forest, meanwhile, will want to play off Wood, the trident behind him of Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi and Reyna looking pretty nasty for a side so lowly. They’ll want their wide players to keep the width and look to play around Everton’s fairly one-paced midfield.

Chris Wood says forest have been working on getting better and becoming more consistent; they were good against Wolves last week. There aren’t too many games left so all they can do is focus on the things they can control; the deducted points don’t bother them. He knows the home crowd can be helpful but also notes that they can get on players’ backs, and that’s what Forest are trying to achieve.

Branthwaite, who looks not unlike an American cartoon, admits Monday’s capitulation was unacceptable, but the best thing about football is you soon have the opportunity to redeem yourself. He thinks the home crowd will get behind the team.

Forest, meanwhile, make two changes following the 2-2 draw with Wolves. At centre-back, Moussa Niakhate is in for Andrew Omobamidele, and Nicolas Dominguez replaces Ryan Yates at the base of midfield.

So back to those teams, then. Dyche makes four changes following the kicking at Chelsea, Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Idrissa Gueye back from injury; Beto and Onana drop out. Otherwise, Jimmy Garner is also rusticated to the bench, with Andre Gomes coming in and Seamus Coleman has groin-kncack, so his spot goes to Ashley Young. Jarrod Branthwaite is fit enough to start.

Ah, here’s Sean Dyche. Andy Hinchcliffe notes that Everton’s defensive record has worsened of late; Dyche explains that it’s hard to find the balance between attack and defence. Asked about Goodison keeping the side up the last two seasons, he says he likes to think the players were involved too.

Breaking news: he arrived while I was still removing; I have been duly chastised for my lack of organisation.

Right, I’m going to go and remove so chair covers to give to the dry cleaner, his visit imminent, because I value my life. After that, we’ll wonder what these teams mean.

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Updated at 12.35 BST

Teams!

Everton (4-2-3-1): Pickford; Young, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Mykolenko; Gueye, Gomes, Harrison, Doucoure, McNeil; Calvert-Lewin. Subs: Virginia, Keane, Onana, Danjuma, Beto, Godfrey, Chermiti, Garner, Warrington.

Nottingham Forest (4-2-3-1): Sels; Williams, Niakhate, Murillo, Aina; Danilo, Dominguez; Reyna, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Wood. Subs: Turner, Sangaré, Toffolo, Elanga, Yates, Origi, Montiel, Omobamidele, Rodrigo Ribeiro.

Preamble

Hello and welcome to what Guardian hilarities are calling the Deduction Derby!

Both Everton and Forest are in all sorts, 16th and 17th respectively and clear of the bottom two only because of the tremendous poverty of Burnley and Sheffield United. But Luton are only two points behind the former and one the latter, so with the gap to Brentford in 15th place now standing at five, one of the three will be relegated.

But which? Everton were horrendous against Chelsea on Monday night, their performance of such ineptitude that no one could’ve complained if they’d been relegated for it there and then. However the Goodison crowd has saved them in each of the last two seasons and, though their 32 goals in 32 games is the second-worst in the division, their defensive record of 48 conceded is bettered only by the top three, and no one would be surprised if Sean Dyche inspired them to just enough 1-0 home wins to secure their safety.

Forest, on the other hand, are a different kettle of incompetence. They’ve actually got a fair few decent players, particularly in attack, problem being sorting them out into a team is not easily done. But, though two of their last four games are against Manchester City and Chelsea, the other two are against the aforementioned Sheffield United and Burnley, so even if they lose today, they’ll still have scope to do the necessary.

Similar, though, is so of Everton, who must face both Liverpool Arsenal, but also have a home encounter with Sheffield United and an away trip to Luton – which might prove definitive. Or, put another way, it’s impossible to predict how this will shake out, which means plenty of fun for those of us with no skin in the game – and, for those who do, the experience of being alive. This is going to be gloriously awful!

Kick-off: 1.30pm

The Guardian