Pirates phenom Paul Skenes still has ‘steps he needs to take’ after comically dominant start to season
No player has dominated any level of professional baseball this season like Pittsburgh Pirates phenom Paul Skenes has dominated Triple-A.
Through four starts, the first overall pick of the 2023 MLB Draft has struck out 27 batters with five hits allowed in 12 2/3 innings. His ERA is 0. He has faced 47 batters total, which bears out to a 57.4% strikeout rate. According to Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo, he is averaging 100.2 mph on his fastball, higher than every starting pitcher in MLB.
That sounds, and looks, like a pitcher who is more than MLB ready, right?
Right?
Well, in reality, it’s more complicated than that, at least according to the Pirates. As manager Derek Shelton explained Friday, a day after Skenes struck out eight in 3 1/3 innings (and 65 pitches):
“I think the thing we have to continue to focus on is — when he gets here, efficiency is going to be important too. We have to get him built up. He’s doing a good job of that. There’s a plan in place. I know sometimes people want to expedite that plan. I understand that, that’s human nature, but we just feel there’s steps he needs to take before we ultimately make a decision.”
Shelton is essentially saying that as good as Skenes has been, the Pirates want to stretch him out to pitch full games, and also potentially make him more efficient with his pitches. As Shelton also notes, though, it’s not like Skenes has needed an incredible amount of pitches to only get through a few innings.
Here are all four starts Skenes has made this season, with innings, pitches and, just for fun, strikeouts:
March 30 vs. Louisville: 3 innings, 46 pitches, 5 strikeouts
April 5 vs. Memphis: 3 innings, 44 pitches, 6 strikeouts
April 12 vs. Toledo: 3 1/3 innings, 55 pitches, 8 strikeouts
April 18 vs. St. Paul: 3 1/3 innings, 65 pitches, 8 strikeouts
Those numbers add up to 210 pitches and 16.6 pitches per inning, plus 4.5 pitches per batter faced. The average MLB pitcher entered Friday averaging 16.7 pitches per inning and 3.9 pitches per batter faced (recall that Skenes has struck out 57.4% of batters, while the MLB league-wide number is 22.6%).
Skenes could need a pitch or two more to get out the average MLB hitter rather than Triple-A, but it’s not like his inefficiency with pitches has stood out so far. If anything, it’s remarkable that batters see only 4.5 pitches per plate appearance when 57.4% involve at least three strikes.
But the Pirates have set their plan, which apparently involves Skenes ramping up early in the season and likely making his debut after a month of so. What goes unsaid in all of this is the Pirates will conveniently gain a year of control of Skenes if he makes a debut after a certain date.
MLB tried to curtail that strategy with its bonus draft picks when players win Rookie of the Year after making their team’s Opening Day roster as a top prospect, but a) winning Rookie of the Year is never in a lock, especially when rookie has a $325 million contract and b) sometimes a single year of a guy is worth more than a draft pick at the end of the first round.
So we’ll likely see Skenes at the end of April or in early May, assuming nothing goes wrong. The hype has been building around Skenes since he started obliterating the SEC with triple-digit heat and nasty secondary stuff at LSU, and he could see a Stephen Strasburg-esque reception when he finallu reaches an MLB mound.