He had just seen his filly Dance Sequence, the third-favourite for the 1,000 Guineas, beaten in her Classic trial by the 18-1 outsider Pretty Crystal, but Charlie Appleby was still in a highly positive frame of mind after the Nell Gwyn Stakes at Newmarket on Wednesday, about Dance Sequence and life in general.
The 2023 campaign was, by any measure, a disappointing one for Appleby, the Godolphin operation’s principal trainer, and especially so in the UK. He registered just two Group One wins in Britain, drew a blank the Derby meeting, Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood and York, and finished eighth in the trainers’ championship having won the title in the previous two seasons.
The main issue, which Appleby himself identified at an early stage, was a below-par team of three-year-olds, and while Dance Sequence’s defeat was a minor setback, he is confident that it promises to be a different story this year.
“Yes, for sure,” Appleby said. “We’ve only run a few [three-year-olds], and we’ve got a couple of colts tomorrow, and obviously Native Approach in the Craven [Stakes at 3.35], but I think we’re in a better position with the stock that we’ve got.
“People will always have opinions, but last year, I just felt that the three-year-olds just weren’t there, and the older horses couldn’t keep going for as long as we wanted.”
Paddy Power briefly pushed Dance Sequence out to 8-1 for the 1,000 Guineas (from 4-1) after her defeat, but soon clipped her odds back to 11-2.
“Without winning, I’m delighted with the run,” Appleby said. “That’s what trials are there for.
“Going out, I said to William [Buick] that he might need to ride her a bit closer to the pace, because last year she was learning on the job and today there were pacier fillies in there. I think we saw all that develop in the race, and even going to the line, William said he thought he’d won and then she ducked towards the rail.
“So it’s just all about learning and I think you’ll see a different filly in two-and-a-half weeks’ time with the extra furlong and the experience.”
Thursday’s Craven Stakes, the feature event of the three-day meeting, has not been won by the subsequent 2,000 Guineas winner for 20 years, a sign of the increasing tendency of leading trainers, and Aidan O’Brien in particular, to send their Guineas horses to Newmarket without a prep run.
O’Brien’s colt City Of Troy, last season’s outstanding juvenile and the hot favourite for the 2,000 Guineas, is following the familiar pattern for Ballydoyle’s runners in the Newmarket Classics, but five of the seven entries, including Native Approach, hold an entry in the Classic.
Native Approach is a 40-1 shot in the ante-post betting, while Eben Shaddad, who offers a second-hand clue to the strength of City Of Troy’s form as he was a four-and-a-half lengths behind the Guineas favourite when third in the Dewhurst Stakes in October, is 66-1.
Cheltenham 1.30 Spiced Rum 2.05 Juniper 2.40 Notnowlinda (nap) 3.15 Malaita 3.50 Golden Ace 4.25 Somespring Special 5.00 Geturguccion
Newmarket 1.50 Mashadi 2.25 Padesha 3.00 Spycatcher (nb) 3.35 Native Approach 4.10 Izipizi 4.45 Maydaan 5.20 Poet Master
Ripon 1.57 Hostelry 2.32 Liberty Coach 3.07 Emu War 3.42 Wintercrack 4.17 Illusionist 4.52 Flying Finn 5.25 Clansman
Chelmsford 5.30 Enzos Dream 6.00 Con Te Partiro 6.30 Moon Aspect 7.00 Stage Show 7.30 Mokaatil 8.00 Southbank
8.30 Shallow
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Quick Guide
Greg Wood’s Thursday tips
Show
Cheltenham 1.30 Spiced Rum 2.05 Juniper 2.40 Notnowlinda (nap) 3.15 Malaita 3.50 Golden Ace 4.25 Somespring Special 5.00 Geturguccion
Newmarket 1.50 Mashadi 2.25 Padesha 3.00 Spycatcher (nb) 3.35 Native Approach 4.10 Izipizi 4.45 Maydaan 5.20 Poet Master
Ripon 1.57 Hostelry 2.32 Liberty Coach 3.07 Emu War 3.42 Wintercrack 4.17 Illusionist 4.52 Flying Finn 5.25 Clansman
Chelmsford 5.30 Enzos Dream 6.00 Con Te Partiro 6.30 Moon Aspect 7.00 Stage Show 7.30 Mokaatil 8.00 Southbank
8.30 Shallow
Andre Fabre’s Alcantor, a close second in a Group One in France on his last start at two, is another interesting runner. It is a little surprising, though, that he is not entered in the 2,000 Guineas, and Native Approach (3.35), who has so far had just two runs in minor events on the all-weather over the winter, could well justify his trainer’s faith in his latest crop of three-year-olds.
“At the end of the day, we’re outside looking in,” Appleby said, “and we feel that the only chance of City Of Troy being beaten is by an unexposed three-year-old, because I don’t see anything that he beat last year reversing the form with him.”