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Jury selection has begun in the first ever criminal trial of a former US president, with Donald Trump accused of 34 counts of falsifying business records.

Dubbed Trump’s “Trial of the Century” by The New Yorker, the case relates to a hush-money payment made to adult film star Stormy Daniels, to cover up an alleged affair she had with Trump in 2006.

“Far from being about sex or small-time fraud,” said Jeffrey Abramson on CNN, “it is about Trump’s alleged attempt to win the 2016 presidential election by burying a last-minute story that could have cost him votes.” It is a story of sex, money and ultimately power.

What is Trump accused of?

The allegations date back to the months before the 2016 US presidential election. After the release of the infamous “Access Hollywood” tape (in which Trump could be heard boasting about grabbing women by the genitals), Daniels’ agent contacted the National Enquirer magazine with the story of an alleged affair between the adult film star (whose real name is Stephanie Clifford) and Trump in 2006, when he was already married to his current wife Melania.

With attention focused on Trump’s relationships with and attitude towards women, the National Enquirer’s editor contacted Trump’s friend and lawyer Michael Cohen, who, Daniels claims, negotiated a $130,000 fee to buy her silence. Cohen, it is claimed, paid the fee himself and was reimbursed by the Trump Organization in instalments identified on company records as “retainer” payments for “services rendered”.

Cohen, who was sentenced to three years in prison after pleading guilty to campaign finance violations in 2018 related to the payments, said he coordinated with Trump to pay Daniels and the former Playboy model Karen McDougal, who received $150,000 from the National Enquirer, and also claims to have had an affair with Trump.

The case has become known as the “Stormy Daniels hush-money case,” said The New Yorker. This has “made it easier for the public to dismiss, because it seems like small potatoes. In fact, the argument that the prosecutors have made in court filings is focussed on something closer to election interference”.

The Manhattan District Attorney, Alvin Bragg, claims this was part of a scheme to “conceal damaging information and unlawful activity from American voters before and after the 2016 election”. Prosecutors think Trump could have lost the election had the Daniels revelations been made public, so “the case is about Trump lying his way into office”, said The New Yorker.

Trump’s lawyers say the payment was meant to spare himself and his family embarrassment, not to help him win the election. He has denied all 34 counts he is charged with and denied having sexual encounters with the two women.

What will it mean for Trump?

Most legal experts believe it is an open and shut case but “the verdict may well depend on whether the jury of 12 understands the gravity of the matter”, said Abramson. “The case will require jurors to focus on the actual charges and not become distracted by the tawdry sexual details surrounding the case.”

The big unknown is the jury, with just one required to dissent to trigger a mistrial. In a state that voted overwhelming against Trump, finding 12 people and six alternates deemed impartial by both the defence and prospection could prove difficult.

The first day ended with no jury members being seated after they were subject to a 42-question survey which asked them about their news habits, whether they had ever attended a Trump rally, as well as hobbies and ability to travel. More than half of the first group of jurors available were excused, said The Times, after telling the judge they could not be fair and unbiased.

Jury selection could take up to two weeks because of the large pool of prospective jurors, said NBC News. With the trial expected to last several months overall and Trump required to be present in court most days it will have a serious impact on his presidential campaign schedule. 

In the Republican primaries Trump used his legal woes to “cast himself as a victim, which fired up support among GOP voters and boosted fundraising”, said Fox News. The former president is expected to “continue his practice of grabbing the media spotlight – both on cable news and online – with his courtroom arrivals and departures, by holding impromptu press conferences”, said the news network. He was at it again as he left court on Monday, telling reporters: “It’s a scam. It’s a political witch hunt. It continues, and it continues forever. We are not going to be given a fair trial and it is a very sad thing.”

“Trump’s current legal limbo – charged but not yet on trial, repeatedly denying the evidence and accusations laid out against him by prosecutors – won’t, on its own, doom his chances of winning back the White House”, said ABC News. But NBC News polls have also indicated that a conviction could be a “game-changer” for the former president.