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But it’s not at all clear that this is what’s actually happening. For one thing, in Monday’s video Trump also bragged about appointing the justices who were crucial to Roe’s repeal, saying he was “proudly the person responsible” for the end of the nationwide right to abortion. He’s speaking directly to mainstream conservatives here, many if not most of whom consider this his shining accomplishment. That Trump personally cares less about abortion than other aspects of his political projects—immigration and authoritarianism, notably—is immaterial. America had national abortion protections before his presidency, and now, because of his presidency, it doesn’t. This is why establishment Republicans, of which Senator Mitch McConnell is an avatar, made their peace with him.

For another, no matter what Trump says now, it’s highly likely that he would sign a national abortion ban, were one to pass Congress. Throughout his short political career, he has happily done the bidding of the religious right: The three justices he appointed to the Supreme Court are the best example, but he also pushed for a national ban on late-term abortions in his 2019 State of the Union address. Since leaving office, he has repeatedly boasted about repealing Roe. In interviews—and in reporting about his private conversations—he has appeared at best agnostic about the possibility of a national ban. “It could be state or it could be federal, I don’t frankly care,” Trump told ABC News last September. 

Now, Trump rightly sees abortion as the biggest threat to his chances of retaking the White House and is attempting to neuter the issue. Trump, as Jamelle Bouie argued in The New York Times, is attempting to carve out a path that creates the appearance of moderation, particularly compared to other Republicans. He is attempting to sidestep the issue altogether, making the case that the states should determine abortion policy based on ballot initiatives, legislation, or “both.”