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America’s longtime military support for Israel is suddenly in doubt. Following the deaths of World Central Kitchen aid workers in an Israeli attack in Gaza, said The Hill, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi joined 30 other Democrats in a letter asking President Biden to reconsider a recently authorized transfer of weapons to Israel. The flow of arms should be halted, the group said, “if Israel fails to sufficiently mitigate harm to innocent civilians in Gaza, including aid workers.”

Military aid to Israel has become a “flashpoint for the Biden administration,” said The New York Times. The United States has sent tens of thousands of weapons to the country following Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack that started the war. Now, though, pressure to restrict or halt weapons transfers is coming from a “vocal minority of lawmakers in Congress.” Biden, meanwhile, has been “sharply critical” of Israel’s conduct of the war — but has also “resisted placing limits on U.S. military aid.”

That may be changing. After the World Kitchen convoy attack, per The Associated Press, Biden warned Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu that continued American support “depends on the swift implementation of new steps to protect civilians and aid workers.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken backed Biden’s warning. “If we don’t see the changes that we need to see,” he said, “there will be changes in our policy.”

The United States backed — or, at least, didn’t block — a cease-fire resolution at the United Nations last month. If that’s the case, Julian Borger said at The Guardian,  “why do arms continue to flow” from the United States to Israel? Among the reasons: “Joe Biden’s personal sense of commitment to Israel” has been honed over decades. So is a fear that holding back weapons might make Israel vulnerable to other enemies, like Hezbollah. But “the scale of the humanitarian catastrophe” in Gaza may be changing those calculations.

“Cutting off weapons to an ally in wartime would be the definition of betrayal,” The Wall Street Journal said in an editorial. Liberals in the U.S. have left its partners in the lurch before — cutting off aid to South Vietnam in 1975, and turning against the war in Iraq when “the going got tough.” The willingness to end weapons transfers “must overjoy Hamas,” but it’s no surprise: “Democrats have a history of abandoning friends in hard times.”

The debate in Washington means Israeli leaders are “rethinking” their country’s dependence on U.S. weapons, Herb Keinon said at The Jerusalem Post.  A recent Gallup poll shows support among Americans for Israel is at 51% — the lowest point in 20 years. The number is even worse among the 18-34 demographic, “America’s leaders tomorrow,” where that support stands at just 38%. “No surprise, then, that reports are beginning to emerge about Israeli plans to start manufacturing more of its own arms.”

What next?

The U.S. is Israel’s biggest backer, but not the only one. Pressure is growing on other allies to stop their weapons transfers, as well. In the United Kingdom, more than 600 legal experts wrote to Rishi Sunak last week to warn the country risks breaking international law with its sales. And Nicaragua this week asked the International Court of Justice to order a halt to Germany’s weapons sales to Israel, said the BBC.

Democrats in Congress could try to pass a “joint resolution of disapproval” of arms sales, Politico said, but that would have to pass both the House and Senate, and perhaps overcome a veto by Biden. That’s a “high bar” to pass. And it seems unlikely: “The Senate almost never votes on resolutions to block U.S. military aid to Israel.”

In the meantime, the clock is ticking. Before the World Central Kitchen attack, CNN said, the Biden administration was set to “greenlight” the $18 billion sale of fighter jets to Israel. The question now is how long American generosity will last, said one former defense official. “Who knows how long the barn doors will be open for?”