Can Trump Be Stopped?

I know that April just started, but the November election will be here before you know it. And the upcoming months are going to be fascinating — and not necessarily in the positive sense.

We all know that wild cards from a possible criminal conviction of Donald Trump to a strong third-party showing by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to a sudden withdrawal by Joe Biden due to his visibly impaired physical and mental health could take the best constructed analysis and stand it on its head.

At the same time, it’s not difficult to estimate a likely winner based on the best information available today. Where do things stand right now?

That winner would be Donald Trump going by recent polling showing both head-to-head and also including third-party candidates.

Trump is ahead in the polls, a situation that he’s not exactly accustomed to. He won in 2016 even though the polls showed him losing. He never led in a national poll in 2020.

Of course, polls aren’t foolproof — much depends on the size and composition of the sample and any biases of the polling firm. Things can always change between the polls and the election and probably will. That said, Trump is not just leading in some polls, he’s leading in all of them.

A Landslide for Trump?

Using the Real Clear Politics data (an average of many polls), Trump is ahead in the national poll by 46.6% for Trump to 44.9% for Biden.

Of course, the U.S. does not have national elections; the winner of the election is determined on a state-by-state Electoral College total. Still, the national lead is significant considering that Trump never had a national lead when he won the White House in 2016.

If electoral votes were tallied today with no toss-up states, Trump would win 312 electoral votes to 226 for Biden. That’s an Electoral College landslide for Trump.

When the polls are narrowed to include only the seven battleground states that will in all likelihood decide the election, Trump’s lead is even stronger.

He has a 3.9 percentage point lead with 47.4% for Trump and 43.5% for Biden. The news from those individual states is even better for Trump. When we look at the seven battleground states (again, a more relevant measure since the presidential election is won at the state level), Trump has the following leads measured in percentage points:

Wisconsin +1.2, Arizona +5.4, Georgia +5.0, Michigan +3.7, Pennsylvania +1.0, North Carolina +5.0 and Nevada +4.3.

The leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina and Nevada are not just comfortable, they’re huge (you may recall most recent elections in swing states have been decided by less than 1%).

Trending Trump

The only key battleground states that are close are Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, both within the poll’s margin of error. But Trump was trailing in both until recently so they’re trending his way. Trump also leads in the betting odds by 45.4 for Trump and 37.2 for Biden.

This is all landslide territory. And a late substitution of Gavin Newsom or Michelle Obama for the enfeebled Joe Biden would not change the outcome. In head-on-head contests, Trump leads Newsom by 17 points, 51% to 34%, and Trump leads Michelle Obama by seven points, 50% to 43% based on the latest Rasmussen polls.

That’s a pretty sad B-team for the Democrats when they lose to Trump by larger margins than the senile Biden.

Finally, there’s a considerable body of political science research that shows voters in presidential elections tend to lock in their positions well ahead of the actual election date. The election is still seven months away. The research suggests opinions are not likely to change significantly between now and Nov. 5.

Voters don’t need to learn more about Trump. He’s a known commodity who people either love or hate.

Those who are put off by Trump’s vulgar demeanor, narcissism, lack of self-awareness and “mean tweets” aren’t going to change their minds between now and November. Neither are Trump supporters who think that Biden’s a senile, corrupt, incompetent president who’s flooded the nation with illegal immigration.

My view is that bad personal habits are irrelevant as long as good policies are pursued. There’s no point in hoping Trump will change. Seventy-seven-year-olds don’t change their style.

OK, but what about third parties?

More Bad News for Biden

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and Jill Stein are all mounting strong third-party runs and the No Labels third party may yet join the fray. What happens then?

It’s more bad news for Biden. Jill Stein has solid ballot access because her Green Party has been seeking ballot access for years. RFK Jr. is on the ballot in New Hampshire, Hawaii, Utah and Nevada. Just yesterday, he qualified to be on the ballot in North Carolina. And expects to be on in Georgia, Arizona, Michigan and South Carolina soon.

That may not seem like a lot, but it covers four of the seven battleground states that will decide the election.

Meanwhile, Cornel West is on the ballot in Oregon, Utah and South Carolina and is targeting Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona. That list also covers four of the seven battlegrounds.

Here’s the worst news for Biden: Polls show the third-party candidates taking more votes from Biden than Trump in a world where Biden is already behind.

The election is still seven months away, but events are definitely breaking Trump’s way.

The Choice Couldn’t Be Starker

The difference for investors between another Biden administration and the return of Trump to the White House could not be more stark.

The Biden administration has been characterized by excessive regulation, pointless mandates as part of the Green New Scam, open borders bringing crime, drugs and cartel influence into the United States, disastrous wars in Ukraine, Gaza and now the closing of the Red Sea-Suez Canal passage, increased segregation of Blacks in colleges, the destruction of 50 years of progress in women’s sports by allowing competition by men and a long list of other ruinous policies.

The first Trump administration was characterized by business and personal tax cuts, reduced regulation, no new wars, outreach to nuclear rivals such as Russia and North Korea, tariffs on unfair trade by China, a concerted effort to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States, demands that NATO members pay their fair share for mutual defense and a secure southern border with Mexico.

Trump also made a historic three appointments to the Supreme Court, which has emerged as practically the last bastion of constitutional order and the rule of law.

There’s good reason to believe that a second Trump administration would offer the growth-oriented policies of the first administration with sane policies that will end the progressive excesses of the Biden administration.

But there are too many wild cards in play to make a firm prediction at this point. Even if Trump wins the election, will the Deep State and/or Democrats conspire to prevent him from taking office?

Strap on your crash helmet, we’re likely in for a wild ride.

The Daily Reckoning