Less than a year ago, Turkey’s main opposition parties were in a slough of despond. Defying their predictions, the country’s authoritarian leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, comfortably won a third term in presidential elections held last spring. At the same time, his Justice and Development party (AKP) emerged more powerful from a parliamentary poll, despite the economy tanking and dissatisfaction at the government’s response to the worst earthquake for decades. Years of clientelism, culture wars and overwhelming media dominance appeared to have rendered Mr Erdoğan’s strongman politics all but unassailable at national level.
Small wonder then, that a spectacular and unanticipated turnaround at Sunday’s local elections prompted wild celebrations into the early hours. In Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city, the incumbent mayor, Ekrem Imamoğlu, trounced Mr Erdoğan’s candidate. Mr Imamoğlu’s Republican People’s party (CHP) also pulled off a clean sweep of other major cities, winning by a landslide in the capital, Ankara, and easily in Izmir. More suprisingly, the CHP managed to chalk up some victories in the conservative towns and villages that make up Mr Erdoğan’s electoral heartland in Anatolia, and near the Black Sea. Gains in those regions for the Islamic far‑right New Welfare party (YRP), at the AKP’s expense, added to the president’s misery.
Given Mr Erdoğan’s grip on institutional networks of patronage and influence, consolidated over the course of more than two decades in power, it would be premature to see these results as marking a definitive turning point. But they offer considerable grounds for optimism among secular, liberal voters. With inflation running at close to 70%, and voter discontent compounded by a big rise in interest rates, playing Islamic identity politics on issues such as LGBTQ+ rights is no longer the winning card that it once was for the government. The austerity programme endorsed by Mr Erdoğan since he was re-elected has appeased western markets but alienated core AKP constituencies. Meanwhile, the charismatic Mr Imamoğlu’s ability to attract more conservative voters to the CHP makes him a far more formidable foe than the lacklustre opponent fielded by opposition parties last May.
Most significantly of all, Sunday’s stinging rebuff may dissuade Mr Erdoğan from seeking further constitutional change to allow him to run for yet another term as president. For over a decade, and especially since a failed coup attempt in 2016, there has been a relentless erosion of democratic checks and balances on Mr Erdoğan’s watch. In 2017, constitutional reforms led to the role of prime minister being abolished. Commenting on Turkey’s long-becalmed bid to join the European Union, the European Commission has noted “serious backsliding” in relation to the rule of law and human rights. The governing coalition led by the AKP is not big enough to change the constitution again on its own, but a stellar result in Sunday’s elections could have tilted political momentum its way.
Strengthening Mr Erdoğan’s stranglehold over Turkey’s politics would have had ramifications beyond its borders. It would, above all though, have been a disaster for Turkish democracy. Instead, there is reason to hope that Mr Erdoğan’s star may finally be on the wane. As Mr Imamoğlu alluded to in his victory speech, in a period in which a similarly authoritarian brand of politics is making inroads in countries around the world, a dramatic night at the polls is a cause for wider celebration.