Q1 GDP Tracking: Just Over 2%

by Calculated Risk on 3/29/2024 11:47:00 AM

From BofA:

1Q GDP tracking remained at 2.2% q/q saar largely due to downward revisions to core capital goods orders and shipments and lower than expected core capital goods shipments being offset by higher than expected manufacturing inventories in the February durable goods print [Mar 28th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

After incorporating this morning’s data and yesterday’s GDP release, we have increased our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.3pp to +2.1% (qoq ar), reflecting stronger consumption growth and a larger contribution from inventory accumulation that more than offset a slightly wider trade deficit. Our Q1 domestic final sales forecast now stands at +2.9% (qoq ar). [Mar 29th estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.3 percent on March 29, up from 2.1 percent on March 26. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 1.9 percent to 2.6 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.16 percentage points to -0.47 percentage points. [March 29th estimate]

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