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Polls have shown for
years that more and more Democrats, now a majority, favor a more
even-handed U.S. approach to Israel-Palestine. Congress is always the last to
find out, but both Schumer’s and Ocasio-Cortez’s speeches are evidence that
this is finally changing. And the pro-Israel lobby AIPAC and its partner groups
would very much like it not to change, which is why they’ve launched a multimillion-dollar effort, much of it provided by
conservative Republican donors, to intervene in Democratic primaries against
progressives.

On the one hand, it’s
clarifying that AIPAC is admitting what it takes to sustain an Israel-can-do-no-wrong
majority in Congress: tens of millions of dollars. At long last, we’re finally
having an honest conversation about that. But it’s also worth noting that AIPAC
is literally buying time here. They may slow the shift in the party, driven by
its progressive wing and by Israel’s own behavior, but they won’t stop it.

What they could do
though is depress Democratic get-out-the-vote efforts by knocking off
progressive champions. Serious Democrats should be concerned about this. The
danger is not just that a lot of these Democrats, already outraged by Biden’s
Gaza policy, won’t vote in the general. It’s that they won’t get the vote out.
They won’t do the phone banking, canvassing, door knocking, and volunteering
that will be necessary to maximize turnout. If this election comes down to a
few hundred thousand votes in a few key states, as it almost certainly will,
this could make the difference. It will have impacts down the ticket as
well, determining control of the House and Senate.