Q3 GDP Tracking: Over 3%

by Calculated Risk on 9/08/2023 10:59:00 AM

From BofA:

Overall, the data flow since our last report pushed our 3Q US GDP tracking up four-tenths to 3.1% q/q saar and 2Q up two-tenths to 2.5%. Next week, August CPI, retail sales, PPI, import and export prices, industrial production and monthly budget statement will affect our GDP tracking [Sept 8th estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

July goods exports were stronger than our previous assumption, and we boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +3.1% (qoq ar). We left our Q3 domestic final sales growth forecast unchanged at +2.8%. [Sept 6th estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.6 percent on September 6, unchanged from September 1 after rounding. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, decreases in the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth were offset by an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real net exports. [Sept 6th estimate]

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