‘The big squeeze’: what the papers say about Bank of England’s recession forecast

Friday’s papers are united in gloom, placing front and centre the Bank of England’s grim forecast of a lengthy recession and inflation rising to its highest level since 1980.

The Financial Times goes big with a “red alert” graphic showing GDP and inflation alongside an image of Bank governor Andrew Bailey, under the headline: “BoE warns of long recession as interest rates rise by half-point”. It notes that the outlook is worse than that of the US or the EU.

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Just published: front page of the Financial Times, UK edition, Friday 5 August https://t.co/ZrPdyJmTCG pic.twitter.com/kzCgmoIBOB

&mdash; Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) August 4, 2022

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“Britain slides into crisis”, says the Times, creating a similar graphic showing interest rate rises, under the title “black Thursday”. Economics editor Mehreen Khan says the Bank “unleashed a catastrophic set of forecasts that would have been scarcely believable a year ago”.

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Friday’s TIMES: “Britain slides into crisis” #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/abR13Hm9al

&mdash; Allie Hodgkins-Brown (@AllieHBNews) August 4, 2022

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The Guardian gives plenty of room for the grim climate news but its lead story is the latest rate rise, the Bank’s sixth, and the forecast of 13% inflation. It lays the blame squarely on Vladimir Putin over his invasion of Ukraine, quoting Bailey’s line that “there is an economic cost to the war”.

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Guardian front page, Friday 5 August 2022: Bank raises rates and warns of 13% inflation. Plus special report on global heating: The burning issue pic.twitter.com/lQceGMMxMR

&mdash; The Guardian (@guardian) August 4, 2022

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Guardian front page, Friday 5 August 2022: Bank raises rates and warns of 13% inflation. Plus special report on global heating: The burning issue pic.twitter.com/lQceGMMxMR

— The Guardian (@guardian) August 4, 2022

Two papers – the i and Metro – opt for some business language with “the big squeeze” as their headline. Couched around a red inflation graph, the i’s bullet points note that economists expect interest rates to rise to at least 3%, and that house repossessions loom for some already struggling with the cost of living crisis. Metro quotes Bailey as saying the interest rate rise will hit the less well off hard but that “the alternative is even worse”.

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Friday's front page: The Big Squeeze #TomorrowsPapersToday

Latest: https://t.co/6BXTtwCWFL pic.twitter.com/4zrGGmmkje

&mdash; i newspaper (@theipaper) August 4, 2022

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Tomorrow's Paper Today 📰

THE BIG SQUEEZE

🔴 Biggest loan rise since '95 as bank predicts recession
🔴 No.10 rivals' TV battle over how they'll economy #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/QNaIEmTnX7

&mdash; Metro (@MetroUK) August 4, 2022

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The Mirror targets Boris Johnson and Nadhim Zahawi – variously on honeymoon or on holiday – saying the prime minister and chancellor are “missing in action” in its headline, set against a graph of the apocalyptic inflation forecasts.

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Friday's front page: Missing In Action #TomorrowsPapersTodayhttps://t.co/QHop57l6TT pic.twitter.com/SY7s9FaYaB

&mdash; The Mirror (@DailyMirror) August 4, 2022

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The Daily Record is equally annoyed with their holidays.

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Friday’s Daily RECORD: “Missing In Action” #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/b9SPdFiZCp

&mdash; Allie Hodgkins-Brown (@AllieHBNews) August 4, 2022

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The Telegraph focuses on the income shock for families amid the combination of a rise in energy costs and a forecast recession. “Recession to cause record drop in income” is the headline. The lead story weaves in the duelling views of leadership rivals Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak on how to tackle the crisis, focusing on the merits or otherwise of their tax cut plans.

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The front page of tomorrow's Daily Telegraph:

'Recession to cause record drop in income'#TomorrowsPapersToday

Sign up for the Front Page newsletterhttps://t.co/x8AV4O6L2Y pic.twitter.com/4O22lHaBiA

&mdash; The Telegraph (@Telegraph) August 4, 2022

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The Mail carries a scathing assessment of Bailey’s skills as governor. The headline is “Banker who’s running out of credit” and it reports he has been forced to deny claims he has been “asleep at the wheel”. The Bank should have raised interest rates last year, it says.

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Friday's @DailyMailUK #MailFrontPages pic.twitter.com/IllsuhpePh

&mdash; Daily Mail U.K. (@DailyMailUK) August 4, 2022

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The Express says “Recession on way … time to batten down the hatches” and reports that the only good news was for retirees who are on track for 10% pension rises.

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Front page: Recession on way … Time to batten down the hatches#TomorrowsPapersToday https://t.co/tvzs7aWOIE pic.twitter.com/lQqpMenYkg

&mdash; Daily Express (@Daily_Express) August 4, 2022

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The National takes the opportunity to suggest that unhitching from the faltering British bandwagon might be wise, with the headline “Now is the time to get Scotland out”.

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Here's a look at tomorrow's front page🗞

Scotland 'cannot afford to stay in the Union' as worst recession since 2008 looms

And Keir Starmer found to have breached MPs’ code of conduct eight times pic.twitter.com/3o2UMpEjug

&mdash; The National (@ScotNational) August 4, 2022

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Here’s a look at tomorrow’s front page🗞

Scotland ‘cannot afford to stay in the Union’ as worst recession since 2008 looms

And Keir Starmer found to have breached MPs’ code of conduct eight times pic.twitter.com/3o2UMpEjug

— The National (@ScotNational) August 4, 2022

The Guardian