Fantasy Usage Model: Week 2

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content=".embed-container {position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;height:0;overflow:hidden;max-width:100%;height:auto;}.embed-container iframe, .embed-container object, .embed-container embed {position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;}” data-reactid=”13″>.embed-container {position:relative;padding-bottom:56.25%;height:0;overflow:hidden;max-width:100%;height:auto;}.embed-container iframe, .embed-container object, .embed-container embed {position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;}

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Now that good data is publicly available, we’re able to more accurately evaluate opportunity for fantasy players. In this column, you’ll get the results of my “Fantasy Usage Model”, which is simply how many PPR fantasy points an average NFL player in an average NFL offense would’ve scored with the same exact adjusted opportunity. Read Targets Aren’t Created Equal and Carries Aren’t Created Equal if you want to see the type of variables that go into this model, but think air yards, relation to the sideline, yards from the end zone, and scheme indicator metrics. It’s a “Buy Low Model” if you’re familiar with the concept (shoutout to the great Josh Hermsmeyer). After comparing my model’s results with each player’s actual box scores, I’ll highlight players who I think are values for the upcoming week. This last part of the process is the most important because I know the things my model doesn’t understand and I can add the much-needed context to give the best results by combining analytics with news, injuries, and film. As always, reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks) if you have any questions. ” data-reactid=”23″>Now that good data is publicly available, we’re able to more accurately evaluate opportunity for fantasy players. In this column, you’ll get the results of my “Fantasy Usage Model”, which is simply how many PPR fantasy points an average NFL player in an average NFL offense would’ve scored with the same exact adjusted opportunity. Read Targets Aren’t Created Equal and Carries Aren’t Created Equal if you want to see the type of variables that go into this model, but think air yards, relation to the sideline, yards from the end zone, and scheme indicator metrics. It’s a “Buy Low Model” if you’re familiar with the concept (shoutout to the great Josh Hermsmeyer). After comparing my model’s results with each player’s actual box scores, I’ll highlight players who I think are values for the upcoming week. This last part of the process is the most important because I know the things my model doesn’t understand and I can add the much-needed context to give the best results by combining analytics with news, injuries, and film. As always, reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks) if you have any questions.

 

<h3 class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Fantasy Usage Model – WRs” data-reactid=”25″>Fantasy Usage Model – WRs

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Week 1 fantasy usage and PPR data.” data-reactid=”26″>Week 1 fantasy usage and PPR data.

 

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Week 2 Fantasy Usage Model Values” data-reactid=”30″>Week 2 Fantasy Usage Model Values

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="These are the 10 WRs I project to go overlooked after suspect box score production recently.” data-reactid=”31″>These are the 10 WRs I project to go overlooked after suspect box score production recently.

 

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Allen Robinson” data-reactid=”33″>Allen Robinson

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Will it be pretty with Mitchell Trubisky? No, but the volume will be there for Robinson regardless. In Week 1, Robinson had 10 targets and 148 air yards (WR12 fantasy usage), making him an all-too-obvious rebound candidate ahead of the Week 2 matchup against a woeful Giants secondary that was just roasted by all three Steelers receivers. Robinson also had 25.1 PPR points against New York last season.” data-reactid=”34″>Will it be pretty with Mitchell Trubisky? No, but the volume will be there for Robinson regardless. In Week 1, Robinson had 10 targets and 148 air yards (WR12 fantasy usage), making him an all-too-obvious rebound candidate ahead of the Week 2 matchup against a woeful Giants secondary that was just roasted by all three Steelers receivers. Robinson also had 25.1 PPR points against New York last season.

 

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="D.J. Moore” data-reactid=”36″>D.J. Moore

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Teddy Bridgewater has a limited arm, but the Panthers will sling the rock a ton, even if Moore’s target share drops with Robby Anderson providing more target competition. His WR13 fantasy usage from Week 1 is a sign that he’ll provide at least WR2-level fantasy numbers on a team that’ll be constantly forced into negative game scripts. I’m buying low on Moore, particularly with the Bucs secondary beatable and pass funnelly (if that’s a word).&nbsp;” data-reactid=”37″>Teddy Bridgewater has a limited arm, but the Panthers will sling the rock a ton, even if Moore’s target share drops with Robby Anderson providing more target competition. His WR13 fantasy usage from Week 1 is a sign that he’ll provide at least WR2-level fantasy numbers on a team that’ll be constantly forced into negative game scripts. I’m buying low on Moore, particularly with the Bucs secondary beatable and pass funnelly (if that’s a word). 

 

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Keenan Allen” data-reactid=”39″>Keenan Allen

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="There are more people than chairs when the music stops in the Chargers Offense. The first game was ugly, but Allen is a rebound candidate after converting nine targets and 88 air yards (WR23 fantasy usage) into 7.7 PPR points, especially with negative game script coming in Week 2. Expect a healthy number of targets for Allen while trailing to the Chiefs’ next Sunday. He’s scored 23.2 and 21.1 PPR points in his last two contests against Kansas City. I like him as an upside WR3.” data-reactid=”40″>There are more people than chairs when the music stops in the Chargers Offense. The first game was ugly, but Allen is a rebound candidate after converting nine targets and 88 air yards (WR23 fantasy usage) into 7.7 PPR points, especially with negative game script coming in Week 2. Expect a healthy number of targets for Allen while trailing to the Chiefs’ next Sunday. He’s scored 23.2 and 21.1 PPR points in his last two contests against Kansas City. I like him as an upside WR3.

 

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="A.J. Green” data-reactid=”42″>A.J. Green

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="The Bengals passing offense has work to do after a sluggish Week 1 performance, but part of that was because of the Chargers’ stud defense. Even though it only equated to 10.1 PPR points, Green looked like a version of his old self and operated as the Bengals’ clear-cut top target (25% target share with WR18 fantasy usage) despite only running a route on 69% of the Bengals’ dropbacks as he works into playing shape. A softer matchup against the Browns’ injured secondary is the perfect buy low spot for Green, who was doubted all offseason by the fantasy community. Consider me a Green buyer as a WR3 rebound candidate.” data-reactid=”43″>The Bengals passing offense has work to do after a sluggish Week 1 performance, but part of that was because of the Chargers’ stud defense. Even though it only equated to 10.1 PPR points, Green looked like a version of his old self and operated as the Bengals’ clear-cut top target (25% target share with WR18 fantasy usage) despite only running a route on 69% of the Bengals’ dropbacks as he works into playing shape. A softer matchup against the Browns’ injured secondary is the perfect buy low spot for Green, who was doubted all offseason by the fantasy community. Consider me a Green buyer as a WR3 rebound candidate.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Editor’s Note: Unlock the brand new League Sync! Keep track of all your Yahoo! teams in one place and use our Trade Analyzer, Free Agent Finder, Lineup Adviser and custom projections to make all the right roster decisions!&nbsp; Get all of our Season Tools, League Sync AND DFS Tools for as low as $7.99/month!” data-reactid=”44″>Editor’s Note: Unlock the brand new League Sync! Keep track of all your Yahoo! teams in one place and use our Trade Analyzer, Free Agent Finder, Lineup Adviser and custom projections to make all the right roster decisions!  Get all of our Season Tools, League Sync AND DFS Tools for as low as $7.99/month!

 

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="T.Y. Hilton” data-reactid=”46″>T.Y. Hilton

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="The Colts somehow lost to the damn Jaguars in Week 1, but Hilton was very involved as expected. He had nine targets and 109 air yards (WR21 fantasy usage) while earning a 20% target share. Indianapolis will throw the ball far more than they did in 2019 with Philip Rivers under center, giving Hilton a clear path to WR2/3 production this season. There’s a potential for a ceiling game at home against the vulnerable Vikings’ corners in Week 2 (Davante Adams had 41.6 PPR points versus MIN last week). I’ll have Hilton inside my top-24 receivers most likely.” data-reactid=”47″>The Colts somehow lost to the damn Jaguars in Week 1, but Hilton was very involved as expected. He had nine targets and 109 air yards (WR21 fantasy usage) while earning a 20% target share. Indianapolis will throw the ball far more than they did in 2019 with Philip Rivers under center, giving Hilton a clear path to WR2/3 production this season. There’s a potential for a ceiling game at home against the vulnerable Vikings’ corners in Week 2 (Davante Adams had 41.6 PPR points versus MIN last week). I’ll have Hilton inside my top-24 receivers most likely.

 

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Marvin Jones” data-reactid=”53″>Marvin Jones

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="It was a disappointing 9.5 PPR-point performance for Jones in Week 1 with Kenny Golladay (hamstring) sidelined. The good news is that Jones’ volume was there (WR25 fantasy usage on eight targets and 70 air yards), and he’ll be facing an easier matchup in Week 2 against the Packers than he had in the season opener against the Bears. If Golladay is active, I like Jones as an upside flex. If Golladay’s hamstring lingers, Jones will be a WR3 with upside in Week 3, while rookie Quintez Cephus carries some deep-league appeal following his 10-target, 129-air yard performance.” data-reactid=”54″>It was a disappointing 9.5 PPR-point performance for Jones in Week 1 with Kenny Golladay (hamstring) sidelined. The good news is that Jones’ volume was there (WR25 fantasy usage on eight targets and 70 air yards), and he’ll be facing an easier matchup in Week 2 against the Packers than he had in the season opener against the Bears. If Golladay is active, I like Jones as an upside flex. If Golladay’s hamstring lingers, Jones will be a WR3 with upside in Week 3, while rookie Quintez Cephus carries some deep-league appeal following his 10-target, 129-air yard performance.

 

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Odell Beckham” data-reactid=”56″>Odell Beckham

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Beckham was one of the biggest positive regression candidates of the offseason, yet he ends up here as a value after his disastrous Week 1 performance. Despite 129 air yards and 10 targets (WR14 fantasy usage), Odell busted for 5.2 PPR points. He had a bad drop, but otherwise looked explosive as a big-play threat. The bigger issue is his chemistry with Baker Mayfield, who I think is just bad at this point. The good news is that he catches the Bengals at home on a short week next. We’ll quickly learn if there’s any hope in Cleveland. I’ll be rolling the dice.” data-reactid=”57″>Beckham was one of the biggest positive regression candidates of the offseason, yet he ends up here as a value after his disastrous Week 1 performance. Despite 129 air yards and 10 targets (WR14 fantasy usage), Odell busted for 5.2 PPR points. He had a bad drop, but otherwise looked explosive as a big-play threat. The bigger issue is his chemistry with Baker Mayfield, who I think is just bad at this point. The good news is that he catches the Bengals at home on a short week next. We’ll quickly learn if there’s any hope in Cleveland. I’ll be rolling the dice.

 

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Preston Williams” data-reactid=”59″>Preston Williams

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="With CB Stephon Gilmore in coverage, Williams struggled to produce in the box score, but Week 1 was still a positive for his 2020 outlook. He handled WR29 fantasy usage with seven targets and 104 air yards, and DeVante Parker left after aggravating his lingering hamstring injury. If Parker is out for Week 2, I’d be willing to start Williams even though he’ll be draped by CB Tre’Davious White and the Bills’ studly secondary. The usage is too much to ignore.” data-reactid=”60″>With CB Stephon Gilmore in coverage, Williams struggled to produce in the box score, but Week 1 was still a positive for his 2020 outlook. He handled WR29 fantasy usage with seven targets and 104 air yards, and DeVante Parker left after aggravating his lingering hamstring injury. If Parker is out for Week 2, I’d be willing to start Williams even though he’ll be draped by CB Tre’Davious White and the Bills’ studly secondary. The usage is too much to ignore.

 

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="A.J. Brown” data-reactid=”62″>A.J. Brown

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Well, well, well. The biggest negative regression candidate of 2020 has appeared on a positive regression candidate list for Week 2. Brown’s unsustainable efficiency as a rookie won’t repeat this season, but neither will his below-average stat line from Week 1 while playing in the Denver altitude. He still saw WR26 fantasy usage on eight targets, which is in line with my WR3 projection for Brown this season. Expect a rebound game at home against the beatable Jaguars secondary this week.” data-reactid=”63″>Well, well, well. The biggest negative regression candidate of 2020 has appeared on a positive regression candidate list for Week 2. Brown’s unsustainable efficiency as a rookie won’t repeat this season, but neither will his below-average stat line from Week 1 while playing in the Denver altitude. He still saw WR26 fantasy usage on eight targets, which is in line with my WR3 projection for Brown this season. Expect a rebound game at home against the beatable Jaguars secondary this week.

 

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Emmanuel Sanders” data-reactid=”65″>Emmanuel Sanders

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Drew Brees’ age looks like an actual problem, but Sanders’ Week 1 usage wasn’t. He had WR20 fantasy usage on five targets because they came closer to the goal-line. That’s the advantage of playing for a good football team like the Saints. His Week 2 matchup against the Raiders couldn’t be better, especially after the Panthers’ receiver corps went crazy against them last Sunday. Sanders has flex appeal if Michael Thomas is active. If he’s not, Sanders must be in season-long lineups.” data-reactid=”66″>Drew Brees’ age looks like an actual problem, but Sanders’ Week 1 usage wasn’t. He had WR20 fantasy usage on five targets because they came closer to the goal-line. That’s the advantage of playing for a good football team like the Saints. His Week 2 matchup against the Raiders couldn’t be better, especially after the Panthers’ receiver corps went crazy against them last Sunday. Sanders has flex appeal if Michael Thomas is active. If he’s not, Sanders must be in season-long lineups.

 

<h3 class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Fantasy Usage Model – TEs” data-reactid=”68″>Fantasy Usage Model – TEs

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Week 1 fantasy usage and PPR data.” data-reactid=”69″>Week 1 fantasy usage and PPR data.

 

 

<h3 class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Fantasy Usage Model – RBs” data-reactid=”74″>Fantasy Usage Model – RBs

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Week 1 fantasy usage and PPR data.” data-reactid=”75″>Week 1 fantasy usage and PPR data.

 

 

<h3 class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Week 1 Targets, Air Yards, Carries, and Red Zone Stats” data-reactid=”80″>Week 1 Targets, Air Yards, Carries, and Red Zone Stats

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Data courtesy of @nflfastR, @benbbaldwin, and @mrcaseb. Please let me know if you see incorrect data, which likely would be my fault to be honest&nbsp;(@HaydenWinks). Scroll right on desktop. Flip your phone on mobile.” data-reactid=”81″>Data courtesy of @nflfastR, @benbbaldwin, and @mrcaseb. Please let me know if you see incorrect data, which likely would be my fault to be honest (@HaydenWinks). Scroll right on desktop. Flip your phone on mobile.

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