Coronavirus model predicts 2,271 Americans will die on April 15 and the pandemic will go on past JUNE

A SCARY forecast predicts that 2,271 Americans will die of coronavirus on April 15 alone, and that the pandemic will persist into July.

The University of Washington School of Medicine warns that “over the next four months in the US, approximately 82,000 people will die from the virus”.

 It's a fortnight until the projected peak day, on April 15, according to IHME
It’s a fortnight until the projected peak day, on April 15, according to IHMECredit: covid19.healthdata.org
 Researchers have forecast that on April 15 alone, 2,271 people will die as a result of the coronavirus pandemic sweeping the US
Researchers have forecast that on April 15 alone, 2,271 people will die as a result of the coronavirus pandemic sweeping the USCredit: covid19.healthdata.org
 People wearing protective face masks walk in Park Avenue as part of NYC's 'Open Streets', which closes some routes to vehicles to allow more space for pedestrians
People wearing protective face masks walk in Park Avenue as part of NYC’s ‘Open Streets’, which closes some routes to vehicles to allow more space for pedestriansCredit: Getty Images – Getty

This is in line with President Donald Trump’s acknowledgement that the Covid-19 death toll could soar to 100,000.

Americans are now being asked to prepare for at least another 30 days of severe economic and social disruption to stop the rampant spread of the respiratory illness.

Trump extended to April 30 strict social distancing guidelines, which had been set to expire on Monday.

Many states and local governments already have stiffer controls in place on mobility and gatherings.

And now, the independent Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) – part of the University of Washington – has released dire projections about the virus.

Surge looming

Experts have published graphs showing a surge in cases – and deaths – over the next fortnight.

They said that, “in a forecast based on new data analyses, researchers find demand for ventilators and beds in US hospital intensive care units (ICUs) will far exceed capacity for Covid-19 patients as early as the second week of April. 

“Deaths are likely to persist into July.”

That’s assuming people protect themselves and their communities by “strongly” sticking to social distancing measures and by taking other precautions advised by public health officials.

They’ve predicted that there will be 2,271 coronavirus-related deaths on April 15 alone.

IHME’s analysis, based on observed death rates, estimates that over the next four months in the US, “approximately 82,000 people will die from the virus.

“Estimates range between 38,000 and 162,000 US deaths.”

 The experts fear that there will be over 82,000 deaths as a result of Covid-19 - a new respiratory disease
The experts fear that there will be over 82,000 deaths as a result of Covid-19 – a new respiratory diseaseCredit: covid19.healthdata.org
 A woman protects herself with a face mask as volunteers from City Harvest distribute food in Harlem on March 28, in New York City
A woman protects herself with a face mask as volunteers from City Harvest distribute food in Harlem on March 28, in New York CityCredit: AFP or licensors

Dr Christopher Murray, director of IHME, said: “The trajectory of the pandemic will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions.

“We encourage everyone to adhere to those precautions to help save lives.”

The analysis was developed in response to requests from the university, hospitals and state governments to determine when Covid-19 “would overwhelm their ability to care for patients”.

“The forecast predicts that 41 states will need more ICU beds than they currently have available.

“And 11 states may need to increase their ICU beds by 50 per cent or more to meet patient needs before the current wave of the pandemic ends – defined as fewer than 10 deaths per day nationwide,” the IHME reported.

Thousands of deaths

Excess demand from Covid-19 “at the peak of the pandemic in the second week of April is predicted to be 64,175 total beds and 17,309 ICU beds.

“We estimate that there will be a total of 81,114 deaths from [the coronavirus] over the next four months in the US.

“Deaths from Covid-19 are estimated to drop below ten deaths per day between May 31 and June 6,” it said.

The researchers concluded that, “in addition to a large number of deaths, the epidemic in the US will place a load well beyond the current capacity of hospitals to manage, especially for ICU care.”

They urged health bosses to “reduce non-Covid-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity.

“These are urgently needed given that peak volumes are estimated to be only three weeks away.”

The estimated excess demand on hospitals is “based on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week.”

Also, government measures had to be “maintained throughout the epidemic” to ease the pressure on hospitals, and decrease deaths.

Trump warned at a press conference yesterday that modeling estimated the peak in death rate was likely to hit in two weeks time.

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