French Open Odds & Picks: Dominic Thiem & Simona Halep Among Favorites

Getty Dominic Thiem of Austria serves in his men’s singles semi-final match against Novak Djokovic of Serbia during day eight of the Mutua Madrid Open at La Caja Magica on May 11, 2019 in Madrid, Spain.

The French Open is a day away, and the oddsmakers have more than a handful of favorites to take home The Musketeers’ Trophy at Roland Garros. Round of 128 action starts Sunday at 5 a.m EST, televised on the Tennis Channel and NBC.

The finals remain two weeks away, with the women’s taking place on June 8 and the men’s on June 9. 11-time champion Rafael Nadal will look to beat back contenders such as Dominic Thiem and Novak Djokovic, while Simona Halep is seeking her second straight.

Let’s take a look at the odds the day before action starts, as well as take a stab at picking winners.

French Open 2019 Betting Odds

Gilles Gallant at OddsShark has released for both the men’s and women’s tournaments. As far as the men go, Nadal is the odds-on favorite at +105. However, Gallant states that the Spaniard may sit due to injury.

The only reason I would suggest to wager on Djokovic (+225) to win the major is because Nadal could get hurt and withdraw from the tournament. I’m willing to roll the dice on that factor and overlook that risk. It’s also worth mentioning that Nadal and Djokovic faced each other at the Italian Open final less than a week ago on clay and Nadal won two sets to one, but if Rafa pulls out, this is Djokovic’s tourney to lose.

Here’s the top-10 of men’s odds, courtesy of OddsShark:

  • Rafael Nadal +105
  • Novak Djokovic +225
  • Dominic Thiem +550
  • Stefanos Tsitsipas +1600
  • Roger Federer +2000
  • Alexander Zverev +2200
  • Juan Martin Del Potro +5000
  • Stan Wawrinka +5000
  • Borna Coric +6600
  • Daniil Medvedev +6600

As far as the women’s side goes, Gallant states that “your guess is as good as mine.” While Halep is the favorite at +400, he finds more value in players such as Karolina Pliskova or Naomi Osaka.

I would lean to Karolina Pliskova at +1200 or Naomi Osaka at +1100. Pliskova has the momentum coming into this tournament by winning the Italian Open and made the semifinals of the French Open in 2017.

Osaka is the world’s No. 1-ranked women’s tennis player and is the reigning U.S. and Australian Open champion. Those tournaments were obviously on hard surface but to get arguably the best player in the world at those odds makes the decision to back her very easy.

Here’s the top-10 of women’s odds:

  • Simona Halep +400
  • Kiki Bertens +800
  • Naomi Osaka +1100
  • Sloane Stephens +1100
  • Elina Svitolina +1200
  • Garbine Muguruza +1200
  • Karolina Pliskova +1200
  • Petra Kvitova +1200
  • Serena Williams +1200
  • Ashleigh Barty +2000

French Open 2019 Predictions & Picks

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Outside of Nadal and Djokovic, Thiem is the next highest at +550. There’s a lot of excitement for the 25-year-old Austrian, as he made the final last time around. With Nadal a potential scratch, the doors are opening for a deep run.

As Simon Cambers at ESPN points out, Thiem also has recent victories over Nadal and Djokovic.

Thiem beat Djokovic in Paris two years ago, when the Serb was the defending champion, and after beating Nadal in Barcelona, he has four wins over the Spaniard on clay, a record bettered only by Djokovic. After Madrid, Thiem lost his first time out in Rome, but his confidence is high.

Recent success and uncertainty surrounding Nadal makes Thiem my pick. As far as the women’s side goes, I’m not feeling Halep. No women as repeated at Roland Garros since Justine Henin in 2006 and 2007.

Instead, I’m going with Sloane Stephens. She’s just the right amount of outsider in terms of odds that has come through to surprise the last few outings. She also reached the finals last year against Halep. It’s a similar pick to Thiem, as both are youngsters looking to finally break through.

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