In the 39th meeting between the two legendary tennis icons, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal do battle in the semifinals of the Indian Wells Masters tournament. The two highest ranked players left in the tournament, Federer and Nadal’s long history likely makes this the biggest matchup of the entire tournament.
Roger Federer vs Rafael Nadal Indian Wells Odds
(Betting line courtesy of Oddsshark)
Spread – Federer -3 (-120)
Moneyline – Federer (-220), Nadal (+175)
Total – 22.5 Games
Federer vs Nadal Indian Wells Betting Prediction
Despite the hype surrounded Federer’s recent extraordinary form, Nadal has been playing just as strong, if not stronger. Looking incredibly crisp during his Indian Wells run, Rafa hasn’t been truly tested until facing 13th ranked and always dangerous Karen Khachanov in his quarterfinal matchup. Despite being pushed to the brink, Nadal was able to even pick up a win there in straight sets.
Meanwhile, Federer also won in straight sets, though he faced the significantly lower ranked Hubert Hurkacz. Despite Roger’s dominance of the Indian Wells Masters so far, he faces a tough matchup in Nadal and has a losing career record to his longtime nemesis. Nadal’s hyper-athleticism and deadly accurate powerful returns are the perfect counter to Federer’s game that is predicated on keeping his opponents off balance with his deft touch.
The matchup should be an extremely close affair and I don’t really see Federer being able to cover a three-game spread, especially considering this should likely go the distance. The over should undoubtedly be in play here but the real value lies in Nadal at +175.
Over their 38 matchups on their respective careers, Nadal has won 23 of those and clearly has the recipe to counter Federer’s game. Even in Roger’s heyday, Nadal consistently has given him problems and has shown time and time again that he is more than just capable of beating Federer, but has his number. Look to the Rafael Nadal moneyline for the most value and bank on the Spainaird to come through once more as he punches his ticket to the finals.
Prediction: Nadal +175
Other notable March 16th Matches
Men’s Semifinal – Dominic Thiem vs Milos Raonic
The other men’s semifinal showdown, Dominic Theim and Milos Raonic match up in what should be an exciting affair. Despite Theim being the more talented player, Raonic has been on an incredible win and most notably knocked off third-ranked Alexander Zverev early in the tournament en route to his unexpected run.
Men’s Doubles Finals – Horacio Zeballos/Marcelo Melo vs Nikola Mektić/Łukasz Kubot
While drawing less publicity compared to the singles showdowns, the doubles matchup featuring the duo of Horacio Zeballos and Marcelo Melo going up against Nikola Mekitc and Lukasz Kubot should be an exciting affair despite lacking major star appeal.
Women’s Doubles Finals – Barbora Krejčíková/Elise Mertens vs Kateřina Siniaková/Aryna Sabalenka
Similar to the men’s side where there aren’t many big names, Elise Mertens clocks in as a top 25 singles player making an appearance. Playing alongside Barbora Krejcikova against Katerina Siniakova and Aryna Sabalenka, it will be interesting to see how some of the world’s best doubles players fare in what should be a fun finals matchup.