History says to bet against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs — and bettors are listening

Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to walk away from the 2019 NFL Honors program the night before the Super Bowl with the Associated Press Most Valuable Player award. He’s having a monster season, and while Drew Brees is going to get some votes, Mahomes is the odds-on favorite to win it.

History suggests if he does win it, his season will already be finished. The folks at OddsShark have an extensive database of gambling statistics dating back to 1984. One OddsShark analyst offered up a pertinent statistic on quarterbacks making their first career playoff start, dating back to 2013.

My first thought was, well, how many of those quarterbacks were on the favored team. According to OddsShark, six of the 15 quarterbacks were on the favored team and they were 3-3 straight up and 1-5 against the spread. Slightly better in getting wins, but even worse in covering.

And bettors are listening with heavy public money being wagered on the Colts this week. 56 percent of money in this game is on the Colts, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. I have preferred betting against the public, but this year the public has been on fire. The public cleaned up in wild card round picks, going heavy on all four underdogs. NFL underdogs are on a role, covering the spread in 14 of their last 15 games.

And for those of who you looking at Andy Reid’s historically solid record coming off a bye week? He has come back to earth with the Chiefs. Dating back to 2013, Reid’s Chiefs are 4-3 straight up and 3-4 against the spread coming out of the bye. And for point total bettors, the games have gone over the point total once.

Bet the Colts, win money, celebrate. It might just be that simple.

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